What could Milei do to convince haters like Avocado / Larry ?

[FuturoBA]

It's great to see a wide range of opinions, esp ones that one doesn't agree with. I get the sense even with some of the positive changes, many don't believe it will continue considering the history of instability and past corruption. Who truly knows if the cycle ends or if it keeps on going.

I thought the NYT had a pretty balanced article on the state of affairs

Milei Tames Inflation in Argentina With Painful Policies, Sparking Applause and Anger

A year after becoming president, Javier Milei has been praised inside and outside Argentina for reining in galloping inflation. But his economic policies have inflicted widespread hardship.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Uncle Wong]

Larry and Avocado you said one of the things that would turn you towards accepting Milei is poverty rates going down. Still a long way to go but this looks promising!

 

[Larry]

It's great to see a wide range of opinions, esp ones that one doesn't agree with. I get the sense even with some of the positive changes, many don't believe it will continue considering the history of instability and past corruption. Who truly knows if the cycle ends or if it keeps on going.

I thought the NYT had a pretty balanced article on the state of affairs

Milei Tames Inflation in Argentina With Painful Policies, Sparking Applause and Anger

A year after becoming president, Javier Milei has been praised inside and outside Argentina for reining in galloping inflation. But his economic policies have inflicted widespread hardship.

www.nytimes.com

Yes it is good to see people talking about the challenges. I have lost some distance with some close friends that believe Milei is doing good. My friends call me a broken clock. They say in Argentina no matter who is President if you wait long enough you will be correct. All my friends say I was right in the end when I sounded the alarm on prices and inflation. I admit some changes look ok now but I don't believe they will last. The government is manipulating the peso. Normal countries don't do this. He has cut spending down too much hurting the poor. The rich are happy but the poor suffer. Read this chart and see.

Javier Milei's Argentina in 6 Charts

At the one-year mark of Javier Milei's presidency, economic optimism in Argentina is higher, but long-standing challenges remain.

news.gallup.com

What will happen once the cepo ends? What do you think will happen? The last time everyone raced to exit and got dollars. The same will happen this time. We will owe even more money to IMF. Argentina can't pay back the debt obligations it has already. How will they pay it back? They lost court case after court case. We shall see. Look up Martinez de Hoy.

 

[Avocado]

I want to see poverty go down with my own eyes not with some figures on some imaginary chart. I need to see it with my own eyes and stop seeing people going through trash cans for food daily.

I don't know how anyone can say poverty rates didn't go up with Milei. They went from 40% to 53% in the first 6 months. I do not see evidence of it going down yet. Look at consumption of beef! Lowest in 28 years!

Less investments in universities which is critical. Research centers and hospitals which Argentina has always had good reputation. What will happen if IMF does not give more money. Already Argentina can't handle it debt.

 

[Blockchain]

What will happen if IMF does not give more money. Already Argentina can't handle it debt.

I wonder about this too which no one can give me an answer there that I met in BA. I met some sharp people there and it seems like everyone is just hoping for the best but when I ask them if the IMF won't give them more money and restructure their existing debt what the plan is?? It seems like a circle jerk. The government can't get rid of the cepo and currency controls without more money from the IMF. And the money from the IMF only will be given if they agree to get rid of currency controls. Everyone says the peso is overvalued and the government seems to know it as well.

If they end the cepo won't there be a race to the exits to withdraw dollars? I am not sure I buy that this time will be different. I see posts like this that say Argentina can't pay back their existing debts and they want to take on yet more debt.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1864384168169263327

 

[Uncle Wong]

I wonder about this too which no one can give me an answer there that I met in BA. I met some sharp people there and it seems like everyone is just hoping for the best but when I ask them if the IMF won't give them more money and restructure their existing debt what the plan is?? It seems like a circle jerk. The government can't get rid of the cepo and currency controls without more money from the IMF. And the money from the IMF only will be given if they agree to get rid of currency controls. Everyone says the peso is overvalued and the government seems to know it as well.

If they end the cepo won't there be a race to the exits to withdraw dollars? I am not sure I buy that this time will be different. I see posts like this that say Argentina can't pay back their existing debts and they want to take on yet more debt.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1864384168169263327

It seems like most of these cases have exhausted all of their appeals. Especially the one from the UK. I guess interests will just continuing to build so the creditors are just crossing their fingers and waiting in line to get paid. I wonder how they prioritize which debts to pay first?? It sounds like Milei does want to pay it all back but so many of them to pay back. It's staggering.

 

[BuySellBA]

We should see salaries continuing to go up. Most employees are part of some union and unions are negotiating cost of living adjustments so if their employers aren't volunteering to raise them they will be forced to by their respective union.


🇦🇷Salaries will keep going up in Argentina. As we pointed out earlier this year, each union will negotiate cost of living adjustments to match inflation.

🏦Bank workers updated their salary agreement with November's inflation, which was 2.4%: the basic salary exceeds $1.6 million pesos ($1,482 USD).

📈Bank workers have received a new salary update in line with November 2024's inflation rate of 2.4%. This adjustment is part of the collective bargaining agreement that the banking union, led by Sergio Palazzo, signed with the sector's business chambers.

💸The 2.4% increase applies to all monthly gross remunerations, including normal, usual, total, remunerative and non-remunerative concepts, as well as conventional and non-conventional additionals. With this increase, the initial basic salary of bank workers exceeds $1.6 million, structured as follows:

✅Initial basic salary: $1,528,425.31
✅Profit Sharing (ROE): $75,939.36
✅Total remuneration: $1,604,364.67

Automatic adjustment mechanism
This adjustment is part of an automatic mechanism agreed upon between the union and business chambers, which directly links salary increases to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published monthly by INDEC. This system ensures that bank workers' salaries are updated according to inflation, thus protecting their purchasing power.

We will see the same thing across all unions over time. The salaries should continue to go up over the next several years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1867302759349067912

 

[Surfer]

From everything I am reading it does look like poverty is coming down and salaries are going up. I know it might not help expats that are living here and making dollars but it looks like economy is improving and the recession is ending. Higher salaries and poverty going down will have to silence the Milei critics.

 

[LyellLanatone]

If any expats complain about poverty reducing and salary increasing they deserve to be expelled as traitors to the patria

 

[Johnny]

If any expats complain about poverty reducing and salary increasing they deserve to be expelled as traitors to the patria

Amen brother. I felt so bad for how little the locals make. In the restaurants that I was going to I was leaving bigger tips. Sometimes in Ubers I felt so bad they were so cheap that I would often times give the driver the same amount as the fare.

 

[Avocado]

If any expats complain about poverty reducing and salary increasing they deserve to be expelled as traitors to the patria

Thank you @LyellLanatone!! I get tired of reading expats complain about their $4 coffees in Palermo. Or not being able to get a $5 steak anymore.

 

[Avocado]

@LyellLanatone another thing that would make me happy is Milei fix economy without take more debt from IMF! In my life this happen 3 times. Same pattern. Argentina say they will do something different and fix things. They take billions from IMF then they can't pay it back. Even this time it same people asking for more IMF money! Caputo same man that did it last time and get us in this mess!

Now they do the same thing ask for more loans and can't pay it back. They have artificial exchange rate now same as with Massa. I will not complain if they can fix problems without taking more debt!

 

[Todd]

@LyellLanatone another thing that would make me happy is Milei fix economy without take more debt from IMF! In my life this happen 3 times. Same pattern. Argentina say they will do something different and fix things. They take billions from IMF then they can't pay it back. Even this time it same people asking for more IMF money! Caputo same man that did it last time and get us in this mess!

Now they do the same thing ask for more loans and can't pay it back. They have artificial exchange rate now same as with Massa. I will not complain if they can fix problems without taking more debt!

This is something I am concerned about. It seems like we have seen this song and dance before. Very true that no one has gotten a surplus but the situation is still dire. It sounds like this exchange rate mismatch is causing the currency to be too strong and companies are starting to close now. Hearing more and more about people getting laid off.

I am not sure if local industry can compete so they will all close. Domino effect. Then if Argentina gets more billions from IMF and they open the currency controls and if there is a devaluation will the government just use the money again to do the same thing with exchange rate? I hope this time is different.

 

[Larry]

@LyellLanatone another thing that would make me happy is Milei fix economy without take more debt from IMF! In my life this happen 3 times. Same pattern. Argentina say they will do something different and fix things. They take billions from IMF then they can't pay it back. Even this time it same people asking for more IMF money! Caputo same man that did it last time and get us in this mess!

Now they do the same thing ask for more loans and can't pay it back. They have artificial exchange rate now same as with Massa. I will not complain if they can fix problems without taking more debt!

Agree Argentina should not be taking on even more debt from IMF! But I know they will get more. They are stuck and desperate. So much for the Milei Miracle!

The economic situation in Argentina is still bad and not sure I see a way out. The Central Bank is running with limited resources and needs an influx of dollars to keep the system running. Those blanqueo dollars helped but now what?

I see a few options.

Reduction of withholdings: This could attract more dollars but would negatively impact tax revenues.

New loan: Argentina is likely to receive another disbursement of funds after making international debt payments scheduled for the first half of 2025, including payments to the IMF.

The biggest problem is the peso is overvalued! The USD is artificially cheap. Tax pressure is high and we're still in a recession even though so-called experts that aren't in Argentina so we are out of the recession.

The only thing keeping the ship from sinking is that we're not in a global commodity price downturn cycle right now.

Seemed like we are screwed either way. IMF will force Argentina to get rid of cepo. Value of USD has to eventually go up once cepo ends. Inflation will come back once controls are removed. Milei says he will get rid of taxes but the tax pressure has actually gone up not down.

Not sure this will turn out well.

 

[enbits]

Nothing, he should keep doing what he's doing despite haters opinions:

The Kirchnerism before the elections emptied the central bank reserves and followed a plan to end Milei's government early:

1. Destroy the economy by printing money and empty the central bank reserves so Milei would have a hard time putting the numbers in shape,
2. Buy journalists to spread fake news about Milei and his family.
3. Buy economists to spread fake data about the economic situation
4. Organize violent protests in an attempt to destabilize the goverment and force it to end early

_________

• They knew that by printing so much money inflation would sky rocket,
• They knew that prices would go up
• They knew that poverty would increase.

This is not the first time that it happens: they did it with Macri, De La Rua and Alfonsin.

Kirchnerism / Peronism did nothing but destroy Argentina over decades of corruption, they don't care about the people that voted them at all, they don't care about the poor, they don't care about the country, they don't care about Wally and Avocado so why Milei should?

 

[Digital Nomad]

Nothing, he should keep doing what he's doing despite haters opinions:

The Kirchnerism before the elections emptied the central bank reserves and followed a plan to end Milei's government early:

1. Destroy the economy by printing money and empty the central bank reserves so Milei would have a hard time putting the numbers in shape,
2. Buy journalists to spread fake news about Milei and his family.
3. Buy economists to spread fake data about the economic situation
4. Organize violent protests in an attempt to destabilize the goverment and force it to end early

_________

• They knew that by printing so much money inflation would sky rocket,
• They knew that prices would go up
• They knew that poverty would increase.

This is not the first time that it happens: they did it with Macri, De La Rua and Alfonsin.

Kirchnerism / Peronism did nothing but destroy Argentina over decades of corruption, they don't care about the people that voted them at all, they don't care about the poor, they don't care about the country, they don't care about Wally and Avocado so why Milei should?

Yes! This is exactly what my girlfriend's father always says. Exactly the same! Their plan didn't work and they are desperate now. He said the mid term elections in October is very important!

 

[Johnny]

Nothing, he should keep doing what he's doing despite haters opinions:

The Kirchnerism before the elections emptied the central bank reserves and followed a plan to end Milei's government early:

1. Destroy the economy by printing money and empty the central bank reserves so Milei would have a hard time putting the numbers in shape,
2. Buy journalists to spread fake news about Milei and his family.
3. Buy economists to spread fake data about the economic situation
4. Organize violent protests in an attempt to destabilize the goverment and force it to end early

_________

• They knew that by printing so much money inflation would sky rocket,
• They knew that prices would go up
• They knew that poverty would increase.

This is not the first time that it happens: they did it with Macri, De La Rua and Alfonsin.

Kirchnerism / Peronism did nothing but destroy Argentina over decades of corruption, they don't care about the people that voted them at all, they don't care about the poor, they don't care about the country, they don't care about Wally and Avocado so why Milei should?

Nasty what the other party did. It seems like Brazil is heading down that same path. Their currency is imploding now. Their Central Bank is trying to contain it but keeps getting worse.

 

[oil rush]

Nasty what the other party did. It seems like Brazil is heading down that same path. Their currency is imploding now. Their Central Bank is trying to contain it but keeps getting worse.

The exchange rate has been so favorable here in Brazil now. It is getting cheap for those who have dollars.

 

[earlyretirement]

The exchange rate has been so favorable here in Brazil now. It is getting cheap for those who have dollars.

Lula started selling Central Bank USD reserves to try to stop the devaluation of the Real. Just ugly ugly what is happening to their currency. Socialism never works.

 

[Darksider415]

Lula started selling Central Bank USD reserves to try to stop the devaluation of the Real. Just ugly ugly what is happening to their currency. Socialism never works.

He should've held off until January 1, so I'd be out of BR by then. 😂