Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

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With the 20,000 m / 25,000m USD that came into the sytem with the tax amnesty and some extra USD from agro exports , rereves were postive for a short time , but that cash has now been spent

Well we have about $20 billion coming from the IMF according to Caputo. He is saying reserves will go up to $50 billion. Not sure I agree on that math.

 

[Bradd]

I see that, even though the Blue dollar went up recently, it doesn't seem to worry Milei much. In fact, he said there won’t be a devaluation, which makes it seem like he's not too concerned about the exchange rate. However, that doesn’t mean the market isn’t still affected by other factors, like economic uncertainty, inflation, or what people expect to happen in the future. So, even though he talks about stability and not touching the value of the peso, the Blue dollar is still reacting to all those other variables. Sometimes the market does its own thing, even when the government says otherwise.

Javier Milei aseguró que no habrá devaluación: “Hablar del tipo de cambio es irrelevante”

El jefe de Estado destacó que el acuerdo que se negocia con el FMI por 20 mil millones de dólares le dará respaldo a la economía. Además acusó al kirchnerismo de promover un golpe y consideró que “Cristina Kirchner está nerviosa porque sabe que va a ir presa, entonces ahora quema las naves”

www.infobae.com

 

[Piranha]

The government just keeps intervening. What I do not understand is how is the blue dollar not moving at all yesterday? Doesn't make sense? The Central bank is selling millions and millions and blowing their reserves. The CCL and MEP only went up a little. Around 1,306 pesos to $1.

Seems like all they are doing is controlling the CCL and MEP and keeping the peso stronger. They blew $1.6 billion bucks the past few week.
Do not understand this flawed philosophy.

 

[MikeYoung]

The government just keeps intervening. What I do not understand is how is the blue dollar not moving at all yesterday? Doesn't make sense? The Central bank is selling millions and millions and blowing their reserves. The CCL and MEP only went up a little. Around 1,306 pesos to $1.

Seems like all they are doing is controlling the CCL and MEP and keeping the peso stronger. They blew $1.6 billion bucks the past few week.
Do not understand this flawed philosophy.

I noticed the same thing. I read a post on X that said the blue is controlled by the government now. Not sure how but if you look on the exchanges yesterday it was totally flat. That seems completely impossible that every other exchange rate would go up and the blue is exactly 0 and unchanged. I asked my friend that lives here and he said the government manipulates this rate.

 

[Larry]

Milei and Caputo are conmen. Caputo is just a puppet of big money and foreign interests. And Milei is powerless. Why do you think he exchanged his entire team from before the elections and the same people that got us into this situation with the deep debt to Argentina Caputo are doing the exact same thing again!

You all complained about Cristina and all the things she did and you are quiet on Milei and all the grift and lies and flip flops. Milei said he was going to blow up the Central Bank and people would have dollars in their hands, less taxes. But instead everything is more expensive, people are burning through their dollar savings to live, taxes have been increases, transportation costs and utilities are killing people. Central Bank is stronger than ever.

Most of my friends are hurting and barely can pay their electricity bill now. Now Caputo and Milei are going to put us even further in debt. This feels like dejavue.

 

[import export]

I noticed the same thing. I read a post on X that said the blue is controlled by the government now. Not sure how but if you look on the exchanges yesterday it was totally flat. That seems completely impossible that every other exchange rate would go up and the blue is exactly 0 and unchanged. I asked my friend that lives here and he said the government manipulates this rate.

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Blue is easier to manipulate. Look at the crypto dollar which is free and can't be controlled. That is a good indicator where things are heading.

IMF is not to help countries. It is to help interests of wealthy companies and businessmen. Seems incredible to hear that IMF would have no conditions for the loan. There has to be some upside for the IMF or they wouldn't throw good money after bad. Argentina already is the biggest debtor nation to them and they already have $40 billion loan with them. And now they get another $20 billion making no principal payments! How can the IMF board approve something like this unless it benefits them or people close to them.

There is a reason so many Argentines dispise the IMF.

 

[MikeRoss]

I met a banker in BA and he said that Caputo is just talking out of his ass desperate and making things up trying to calm the markets. You can tell when he is speaking he is just making things up. IMF has to always do a press conference after and just basically say the truth. Just that Argentina has requested these things. Caputo and Milei are grasping at straws now. The $20 billion said it will arrive in stages not all up front. They would be crazy to give it to them all at once.

I have my popcorn out. Seems like the next few weeks will be interesting.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

I met a banker in BA and he said that Caputo is just talking out of his ass desperate and making things up trying to calm the markets. You can tell when he is speaking he is just making things up. IMF has to always do a press conference after and just basically say the truth. Just that Argentina has requested these things. Caputo and Milei are grasping at straws now. The $20 billion said it will arrive in stages not all up front. They would be crazy to give it to them all at once.

I have my popcorn out. Seems like the next few weeks will be interesting.

I bet it arrives in installments , timed nicely to coincide with repayments to the lender of the original loan.

 

[MikeRoss]

I bet it arrives in installments , timed nicely to coincide with repayments to the lender of the original loan.

Yes that is what I was told. I have no clue. But then again it sounds like either does Caputo or the administration or even the IMF yet know.

 

[Wally]

I bet it arrives in installments , timed nicely to coincide with repayments to the lender of the original loan.

That is wiser to do it in installments but this is a crazy year so you never know. I just listened to this YT. This guy used to work for the IMF.



If you look at the crypto rates the dollar keeps rising. I would look at free markets like crypto to se where the blue dollar is eventually heading. It's already 1,330 to $1 dollar now.

 

[earlyretirement]

The crypto rate last night showed us that people don't trust Caputo.

Blue, MEP and CCL all going up.

 

[earlyretirement]

Up 2% today alone. I've been posting how the peso was not worth the values it was trading at. Interventions only work so long.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Wow that is a big jump up!

 

[Betsy Ross]

At this rate the IMF won't need to force them to devalue. Every day it keeps going up a bit more. I just hope inflation doesn't jump up.

 

[earlyretirement]

At this rate the IMF won't need to force them to devalue. Every day it keeps going up a bit more. I just hope inflation doesn't jump up.

The Central Bank just sold another $143 Million USD today bringing their reserves down to $25.052 Billion.

 

[Bett]

At this rate the IMF won't need to force them to devalue. Every day it keeps going up a bit more. I just hope inflation doesn't jump up.

You're right, if the blue dollar continues to rise uncontrollably, inflation could skyrocket. However, it also depends on how the government responds and the economic policies they implement to try to curb this increase. We'll have to see how they manage it.