Argentina's Country Risk Index has dropped below 1,000 points

[earlyretirement]

Great news that the country risk for Argentina keeps going down.

Argentina’s country risk index, measured by JP Morgan, dropped below 1000 basis points for the first time since August 2019, reaching 992 points. This decline is attributed to capital inflows from asset disclosures, Central Bank reserve purchases, and positive international negotiations. Sovereign bonds rose up to 2%, and Argentine stocks in New York increased by as much as 7%. The Buenos Aires stock exchange also saw gains. Financial optimism is driven by successful fiscal policies, decreasing inflation, and potential repo financing, with the new target for country risk set at 800 points.

El riesgo país perforó la barrera de los 1000 puntos básicos

El índice elaborado por el JP Morgan se ubica en 984 unidades, algo que no sucedía desde agosto de 2019; los bonos soberanos suben hasta 2% y las acciones trepan hasta 7% en Nueva York

www.lanacion.com.ar

 

[Betsy Ross]

Indeed great news. I've been watching the country risk continuing to go down each month. Hopefully credit markets open to Argentina. It sounds like the IMF is going to give more money which probably means the Cepo will end in the near future as they were big on Argentina doing that first.

 

[florenceb]

Oh yes, someone posted this graph showing the evolution in another thread.

Poverty has no limit in Argentina

He has to chase investments because that is what is going to help turn things around for Argentina. There has already been billions of investments announced with the RIGI law. Unfortunately the benefits of that won't be felt for some time. Frustration is normal if things don't turn around...

www.expatsba.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849525972741111836

 

[Finance Prof]

All very positive signs.

 

[multitasker]

Even the IMF indicated that according to its forecast, Argentina will be the fastest-growing country in Latin America in 2025.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849899991461958142

 

[FuturoBA]

I've heard about country risk index before but don't know about its significance. Could someone explain or link to what it means and what's considered a good target?

 

[Finance Prof]

I've heard about country risk index before but don't know about its significance. Could someone explain or link to what it means and what's considered a good target?

This is a great URL that explains country risk score. When people talk about Argentina's risk score they are typically referring to it's ability that Argentina will pay back it's debt obligations.

https://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/workshops/papers/mcaleer/mcaleer4.pdf

 

[Betsy Ross]

I've heard about country risk index before but don't know about its significance. Could someone explain or link to what it means and what's considered a good target?

After you live here for a while you always hear of "riesgo pais" here and locals always talk about that. The lower the number the better it is. It means that international banks think there is less risk for Argentina to pay back it's debt.

The score in January 2024 right after Milei took over was bad. Alberto the past President left things a mess and the score was 2,100.

 

[Wally]

I've heard about country risk index before but don't know about its significance. Could someone explain or link to what it means and what's considered a good target?

Like Betsy and Finance Prop mentioned. Also, I often see it referenced as the JP Morgan risk benchmark. I'm not sure if there are multiple country risk numbers but I don't think so. I'd be curious if there are any websites that have a historical chart of the country risk over the last few decades.

 

[Larry]

Like Betsy and Finance Prop mentioned. Also, I often see it referenced as the JP Morgan risk benchmark. I'm not sure if there are multiple country risk numbers but I don't think so. I'd be curious if there are any websites that have a historical chart of the country risk over the last few decades.

I can't find a chart for older data. I was also curious. I just see this for the past year.

 

[import export]

Like Betsy and Finance Prop mentioned. Also, I often see it referenced as the JP Morgan risk benchmark. I'm not sure if there are multiple country risk numbers but I don't think so. I'd be curious if there are any websites that have a historical chart of the country risk over the last few decades.

I don't know if there is a website that has the historical chart. This website has very detailed information on certain countries including Argentina. But I think much of it is paid/subscription.

Argentina Geopolitical Risk Index, 1985 – 2024 | CEIC Data<br>

Argentina Geopolitical Risk Index was reported at 0.037 % in Sep 2024. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.038 % for Aug 2024.

www.ceicdata.com

 

[Betsy Ross]

I found these charts on the past few years. Two graphs on country risk. Lowest was with President Macri and it also reached its lowest point in April 2016.

 

[Vince]

The country risk hit 870 points, a level not seen since the 2019 Paso election. Great to see this continue to go down.

 

[Silvia]

The country risk hit 870 points, a level not seen since the 2019 Paso election. Great to see this continue to go down.

Good that it is going down but prices continue to go up. Very expensive in dollar terms too.