Is the Expat party in Buenos Aires coming to an end?

[Cheap Bastard]

I first came to BA in mid 2017 when the peso was like, stable for a while at 15 pesos to $1 US dollars

I'll never forget grabbing a cerveza at this cool spot in Palermo Soho – it was just $100 pesos, which was like $6.60 in US dollars.

I also picked up a tin of tuna and a block of cheese for just $7,50 US dollars. Random, right? I remember because my old girlfriend loved tuna and cheese (don't ask! - was her jam!)

But things got way cheaper after the whole Macrisis situation.

I really hope the dollar doesn't stay at 1000 pesos per $1USD for too much longer. Fingers crossed!

 

[Larry]

Yikes! In just six months, if inflation keeps going at this crazy 30% per month rate, prices will more than double from today. And if they try to control the blue rate, Argentina might lose, like, 75% of its tourists and those digital nomads who came here because it was, you know, super cheap.

Can you believe it? Steak could be, like, $25 dollars a Kg by the end of 2024! I mean, in 2003, it was just $3 dollars at most. Those were the golden years, man, from 2003 to 2008 – everything was cheap and, like, really good quality. This is kinda freaking me out, you know?

 

[Billy Goat]

Yikes! In just six months, if inflation keeps going at this crazy 30% per month rate, prices will more than double from today. And if they try to control the blue rate, Argentina might lose, like, 75% of its tourists and those digital nomads who came here because it was, you know, super cheap.

Can you believe it? Steak could be, like, $25 dollars a Kg by the end of 2024! I mean, in 2003, it was just $3 dollars at most. Those were the golden years, man, from 2003 to 2008 – everything was cheap and, like, really good quality. This is kinda freaking me out, you know?

@Larry everyday you get too nervous. Calm down and stop watching this:

Chicken Little (2005 film) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Fingerless]

I first came to BA in mid 2017 when the peso was like, stable for a while at 15 pesos to $1 US dollars

I'll never forget grabbing a cerveza at this cool spot in Palermo Soho – it was just $100 pesos, which was like $6.60 in US dollars.

I also picked up a tin of tuna and a block of cheese for just $7,50 US dollars. Random, right? I remember because my old girlfriend loved tuna and cheese (don't ask! - was her jam!)

But things got way cheaper after the whole Macrisis situation.

I really hope the dollar doesn't stay at 1000 pesos per $1USD for too much longer. Fingers crossed!

I gotta say, the Macri era felt way pricier, relatively speaking. But seriously, I never dropped that much cash on a beer in Argentina. You rich folks over in Recoleta and Palermo really know how to splurge for the good life!

Back when the dollar was at $17, I was scoring tuna for the same price – $17, like a dollar in USA. Tuna prices stick in my mind 'cause I spoil my cats with it.

But, man, electricity and expensas? Big bucks! I remember shelling out a hefty $60 a month for each during some Macri months. Fast forward to now, I'm forking out $24,000 for expensas and $9,000 for electricity, no subsidies. Talk about a wallet workout!

 

[Used]

Yikes! In just six months, if inflation keeps going at this crazy 30% per month rate, prices will more than double from today. And if they try to control the blue rate, Argentina might lose, like, 75% of its tourists and those digital nomads who came here because it was, you know, super cheap.

Can you believe it? Steak could be, like, $25 dollars a Kg by the end of 2024! I mean, in 2003, it was just $3 dollars at most. Those were the golden years, man, from 2003 to 2008 – everything was cheap and, like, really good quality. This is kinda freaking me out, you know?

You worry too much. The sky isn't falling. In 6 months inflation will have slowed down. You are totally exaggerating @Larry on just about everything. Things here are no where close to as expensive as back home in the USA. I was just in San Francisco and that place has turned into Gotham City. BA in comparison is awesome. I went to try toothpaste downtown and it's all locked up! You can't even buy toothpaste or Aspirin without getting someone to unlock the case for you.

 

[VINO]

You worry too much. The sky isn't falling. In 6 months inflation will have slowed down. You are totally exaggerating @Larry on just about everything. Things here are no where close to as expensive as back home in the USA. I was just in San Francisco and that place has turned into Gotham City. BA in comparison is awesome. I went to try toothpaste downtown and it's all locked up! You can't even buy toothpaste or Aspirin without getting someone to unlock the case for you.

I'm a bit worried that if no one has a job or money, inflation might get better by April because there won't be much demand. But that's kind of a scary, you know?
Milei who's really into the whole far-right economic thing. He's all about cutting back on spending and hopes the market's invisible hand does its thing (remember Macri). I'm not sure what that thing is, though. People keep saying that every time they try this "shock therapy" stuff, salaries stay the same or even go down while everything gets more expensive.

I'm really concerned about social unrest. If someone's making $500 a month and suddenly rent for a tiny apartment goes from $200 to $450, and the price of meat, chicken, bread, and other basics doubles, it's not gonna be good. Desperate people might start doing desperate things, like protests or looting.

It's not that people don't think things needed to change; it's just that it's hitting regular folks hard, you know? Taking the bus these days feels like waiting in line at some government office, and we're not even in 2024 yet.

 

[Canada Goose]

I'm a bit worried that if no one has a job or money, inflation might get better by April because there won't be much demand. But that's kind of a scary, you know?
Milei who's really into the whole far-right economic thing. He's all about cutting back on spending and hopes the market's invisible hand does its thing (remember Macri). I'm not sure what that thing is, though. People keep saying that every time they try this "shock therapy" stuff, salaries stay the same or even go down while everything gets more expensive.

I'm really concerned about social unrest. If someone's making $500 a month and suddenly rent for a tiny apartment goes from $200 to $450, and the price of meat, chicken, bread, and other basics doubles, it's not gonna be good. Desperate people might start doing desperate things, like protests or looting.

It's not that people don't think things needed to change; it's just that it's hitting regular folks hard, you know? Taking the bus these days feels like waiting in line at some government office, and we're not even in 2024 yet.

Imagine if Massa had won the election! What do you reckon would've gone down? Would inflation be chill, the same, or totally off the charts? And hey, if Milei starts taking on system now, is anyone gonna have his back, or are they gonna kick him out of office? I'm just throwing these questions out there—I don't have the answers. What's your take?

 

[Pink Panther]

I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that if Argentina becomes super pricey in US dollars and salaries stay low, we might see some serious social unrest. On the flip side, if salaries go up, it might not be so appealing for investors. Plus, with governments doing a 180 degree turn on rules every few years I'm not sure if they'd be all that excited to jump in. Honestly, not sure what's gonna happen next. What do you think?

 

[oil rush]

Imagine if Massa had won the election! What do you reckon would've gone down? Would inflation be chill, the same, or totally off the charts? And hey, if Milei starts taking on system now, is anyone gonna have his back, or are they gonna kick him out of office? I'm just throwing these questions out there—I don't have the answers. What's your take?

I don't think anyone is debating that inflation would have been a fact of life if Milei lost. Truth is no one knows how bad things would be and the IMF was losing patience and Argentina is broke. Things weren't going to end up well no matter what. It's just a question of how bad does it get. OSDE, Swiss Medical, Hospital Italiano and all the other private plans won't be making more of everyone just cuts and cancels their coverage and goes to public system. It's going to backfire.

 

[Frosted Flakes]

I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that if Argentina becomes super pricey in US dollars and salaries stay low, we might see some serious social unrest. On the flip side, if salaries go up, it might not be so appealing for investors. Plus, with governments doing a 180 degree turn on rules every few years I'm not sure if they'd be all that excited to jump in. Honestly, not sure what's gonna happen next. What do you think?

The Blue Dollar won't stay in parity or close like this with the official for long. Do you really think I a few months the blue dollar isn't going to skyrocket? What you are seeing is only temporary. If you have USD you will see your buying power go back up. But true it won't help the locals earning in PESOS.

 

[No Pesos]

I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that if Argentina becomes super pricey in US dollars and salaries stay low, we might see some serious social unrest. On the flip side, if salaries go up, it might not be so appealing for investors. Plus, with governments doing a 180 degree turn on rules every few years I'm not sure if they'd be all that excited to jump in. Honestly, not sure what's gonna happen next. What do you think?

During the last elections, I kinda felt like maybe Macri should keep going, even though he hadn't exactly aced the job (the full extent of his not-so-great job only hit us later), because Argentina needed some stability back then. Then Alberto Fernández got elected, had to handle the pandemic, which he did pretty well (although some folks on forums won't ever forgive him for keeping us safe), and after that, he just seemed to keep putting his foot in his mouth every chance he got. Now the whole ship has done a 180, and the only thing that's for sure is that nothing's for sure.

 

[GlasgowJohn]

During the last elections, I kinda felt like maybe Macri should keep going, even though he hadn't exactly aced the job (the full extent of his not-so-great job only hit us later), because Argentina needed some stability back then. Then Alberto Fernández got elected, had to handle the pandemic, which he did pretty well (although some folks on forums won't ever forgive him for keeping us safe), and after that, he just seemed to keep putting his foot in his mouth every chance he got. Now the whole ship has done a 180, and the only thing that's for sure is that nothing's for sure.

Alberto kept us safe?

He kept us locked up while he and his family had parties in Los Olivos - I cant wait to see the full list of people who visited him in Los olivs and their real occupations.

He was the worst president in the history of the Republic.

 

[Howard Stern]

Guess what? So tons of unions have totally scored some extra sweet deals for December wages – we're talking a whopping 40% extra! Picture this: at this super-unionized company I'm in the know about, the mid-level employees are going from, like, $500 USD (that's ARS488k in monopoly currency) to a dazzling $685 (ARS668k)! Cha-ching!

Hold onto your snapbacks, 'cause there's more coming in February, depending on how inflation decides to throw its party. It's gonna be a rollercoaster ride, with unions doing the catch-up dance. No clue what's happening with the public and state worker crews, and for the majority of Argentine workers who are in this mysterious "en-negro" zone, they're crossing their fingers for a catch-up miracle too. Wild times ahead, folks!

Also something to consider -back in the day from 1994 to 2001, the average salary in Argentina was rocking at around US$1300 (but, get this, minimum wage was only a measly US$200). Living was like next-level expensive, even more than most developed countries. Then, in 2002, things took a nosedive to a sad $400, and they chilled below $700 till 2008. Climbed back up to a hopeful US$1,400 in 2017, but boom, crashed back down to under $500 when the bubble burst. Now, under Alberto, it's been stuck in the basement at around US$200-$300. Imagine that – folks working hard, barely scraping by, and the struggle's been real for years. Surprisingly, though, no wild social uproar.

Now, just to put it in perspective, let's check out some neighbors. Uruguay's throwing a party at US$1,000+ for the average salary, and Chile's hitting the scene at US$800+. Compare and contrast, right?

On the flip side, the good old days of munching on Kansas grub for the price of a happy meal worldwide in dollar terms? Yeah, that ship sailed. Back in the '90s, Argentina wasn't exactly a tourist hotspot or a magnet for immigrants from fancy countries. High costs, sparsely populated, and major income inequality – it was a pricey gig. But hey, hold onto your café dreams. Even though we're not rocking $10 coffees like Sydney, New York, or Paris, history tells us we won't be sipping lattes on the cheap anytime soon. Keep it real, people!

 

[earlyretirement]

Alberto kept us safe?

He kept us locked up while he and his family had parties in Los Olivos - I cant wait to see the full list of people who visited him in Los olivs and their real occupations.

He was the worst president in the history of the Republic.

I totally agree! I laughed really hard when I read that post from @No Pesos. Totally funny. He made Porteños prisoners in their own homes! By the grace of God, I got my mother in law on an Emergency flight 2 days before the lock down started. I had a really bad feeling and flew her to the USA where she spent COVID with us in peace and freedom.

That time during COVID was the only stretch of time that I didn't visit Argentina and it was really painful being away. Argentina's lockdown was one of the most brutal in the world. I don't know how people can say, "he kept us safe". My in-laws all live in Florida where everything was open, no one was wearing masks and everything was perfectly fine.

I admit in the beginning when no one knew anything about COVID people were scared and people didn't know but a brutal LOCK DOWN for that long was crazy. I didn't visit Argentina for a while for fear I'd get stuck there.

Thank God I live in a gated community in San Diego where live was normal. We could go on walks, un mask and really live a normal life.

 

[Wally]

I totally agree! I laughed really hard when I read that post from @No Pesos. Totally funny. He made Porteños prisoners in their own homes! By the grace of God, I got my mother in law on an Emergency flight 2 days before the lock down started. I had a really bad feeling and flew her to the USA where she spent COVID with us in peace and freedom.

That time during COVID was the only stretch of time that I didn't visit Argentina and it was really painful being away. Argentina's lockdown was one of the most brutal in the world. I don't know how people can say, "he kept us safe". My in-laws all live in Florida where everything was open, no one was wearing masks and everything was perfectly fine.

I admit in the beginning when no one knew anything about COVID people were scared and people didn't know but a brutal LOCK DOWN for that long was crazy. I didn't visit Argentina for a while for fear I'd get stuck there.

Thank God I live in a gated community in San Diego where live was normal. We could go on walks, un mask and really live a normal life.

Agreed! It's difficult to say who was the worst President in the history of Argentina. Definitely I rank Alberto as one of the top 3 worst Presidents in Argentina history. CFK is up there too. The amount she stole from the nation is staggering. How she isn't in jail is beyond me.

 

[Betsy Ross]

Alberto kept us safe?

He kept us locked up while he and his family had parties in Los Olivos - I cant wait to see the full list of people who visited him in Los olivs and their real occupations.

He was the worst president in the history of the Republic.

Totally spot on target! Alberto was THE worst President. He said and did so many stupid things during his Presidency. How any one can support anything that fool did is beyond me. At least he knew he stood NO chance of getting elected. I give him credit for that that he knew it was a losing battle.

 

[Nasdaq]

if the US dollar keeps playing the inflation game, it's like, duh, less people are gonna be jet-setting to Argentina, and those expat foreigners and digital nomads might not think it's the coolest spot to set up camp anymore. Check this out – my sister was all set to roll to Bariloche with her hubby from the U.S. in a few years, but now, with Milei as President, it's like a big question mark. She's like, "Hold up, let's see how this plays out and how expensive things get." I explained that it probably would be worse with Massa she thinks the blue dollar would be worth a lot more so she could arbitrage better.

And, like, the dollar blue rate? It's not on a leash or anything; it's just that nobody's really into dollars right now. If people were all about dollars, you know it would be on the rise. It's just how the money game goes, people. It will probably change but who knows for sure. That's Argentina for you.

 

[sophos]

It is anticipated that a more comprehensive understanding of the prevailing economic dynamics will emerge in the forthcoming month, commencing here in a few days. This anticipation is rooted in the conjecture that the global demand for the United States dollar, primarily directed towards the acquisition of petroleum, is poised to experience a discernible decline, potentially characterized by expeditious and precipitous reductions.

 

[Aussieland]

Okay, so here's the deal – Massa and Milei, they're like two different speeds, you know? I think Massa would've made some changes, like Milei, but just not as fast. Like, he wouldn't be dropping a 40% bomb on health insurance in one month. That's just not his style.

Now, about Milei, I don't see him going all out against the elite crew. Why? 'Cause he, his buddies, and his JxC squad, they're all part of that same high-flyin' group. It's like when Trump talks about "The Deep State," but then pals around with them in his cabinet or lets them crash at his hotels. Plus, here's the kicker – LLA/JxC/UP, they're all on the same page: hear no evil, see no evil, speak no evil. The rich stay rich while the regular folks foot the bill for any adjustments. It's like the same old song and dance, just with different players.

 

[Aussieland]

I'm not an expert, but it seems to me that if Argentina becomes super pricey in US dollars and salaries stay low, we might see some serious social unrest. On the flip side, if salaries go up, it might not be so appealing for investors. Plus, with governments doing a 180 degree turn on rules every few years I'm not sure if they'd be all that excited to jump in. Honestly, not sure what's gonna happen next. What do you think?

I totally agree this issue doesn't get enough love. So, check it: anything rolled out with the whole DNU vibe can be easily rolled back, like, poof! And the whole money scene? We went from "cepo" under CFK to "No Cepo" with Macri, then did a 180 to "SUPER Cepo" with Alberto, and now we're supposedly back to "NO Cepo" vibes with Milei. It's like trying to plan more than, say, a 3-year game plan for businesses is basically Mission: Impossible. Not that there's a massive queue of companies itching to drop mad cash on Argentina.

I'm all about Argentina winning, but if I was advising some big-shot multinational, I'd be like, "Expect a rollercoaster for the next 3 years, or better yet, chill till the 2027 elections. Scope out the scene before making any big, long-term moves, OK?