Avocado
Well-known member
People aren't complaining just to complain. Many are starving and poor and pensioners that have no money to pay bills. So they see the excessive traveling and understandably are not happy. Look at it from their perspective.
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Politics Thread: President Javier Milei - From Decree of Necessity and Urgency (DNU) to Today
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Finance Prof
Well-known member
Milei is trying to make these trips to improve the situation of the poor and help eliminate poverty. Do you really think Milei doesn't want to see poverty go down??
He has a mission when he goes on these trips. He is trying to do so many things at once. Very difficult. One thing everyone can agree on is his stance on taxes. Taxes are theft!
Milei: “Taxes are theft”
Argentine President Javier Milei said this weekend in an interview with the Italian TV Quarta Repubblica to be aired Monday that taxes “are theft.” The South American leader also insisted that “public spending cuts are not an unpopular measure.” Milei spent the weekend in Rome where he had a...
This will make you happy @Avocado. Milei isn't going to go anywhere for vacation. He is doing this just for you. Not only him but any government officials.
Vince
Well-known member
Avocado
Well-known member
This is rich! Milei tells his Ministers not to go travel overseas for their vacation!! 🤣🤣🤣
www.yahoo.com
Milei tells cabinet to take ‘austerity’ holidays
Javier Milei warned his ministers to avoid taking expensive or ostentatious holidays over the festive season, especially anything involving foreign travel.
Uncle Wong
Well-known member
I think @CraigM makes a good point. I see a lot of people criticizing Milei but it seems like many complaining are expats that love a strong blue dollar and just want to get more bang for their buck. You all don't really want to see things fall apart do you? Or maybe you do? I think some of you are just there because it is cheap.
I would think that prices will have to adjust but almost every single article including this one from the WSJ I am reading is saying how expensive Argentina is now.
"Mr. Milei has backed off his campaign promise to close the central bank and dollarize, which could turn out to be a fatal miscalculation. Exchange and capital controls remain in place and the peso is overvalued, making the country very expensive in dollar terms. Cristina Kirchner, convicted in a $1 billion kickback case in 2022, is now head of the Peronist party that has a plurality in both congressional chambers. Mr. Milei’s negotiations with her are making advocates of the rule of law and institutions nervous."
Something doesn't jive because I see a lot of articles saying how inflation is contained now but all my local friends complain daily about costs and all these articles are saying how expensive Argentina is. I see the Big Mac index has Argentina with the 2nd highest Big Mac in the world. And my friends there are saying their salaries have gone up but no where close to matching inflation like many of these articles are saying so something doesn't add up.
You are right. Milei is supposed to be some genius economist but they are ignoring the fact that the peso is too strong. And salaries are not matching inflation. That is just an outright lie. Maybe some people are getting raises but it is not most and it certainly is not matching real inflation. Prices here are very dear! More expensive than Europe. This will not end up well.
Blockchain
Well-known member
This is one doubt that I have because Milei seems like a smart guy that knows economics but how is he not bothered by how strong the peso is getting? I get that they need to get inflation down but I would think that there will be an eventual devaluation with what is going on with Brazil.
I read a few posts on X and some of the locals seem totally nuts thinking that Argentina's currency should be this strong. Granted this guy Robin Brooks has been totally dead wrong on the Real for a while but he makes some good points. What are people saying? Will Milei go on to dominate after his first term?
Vince
Well-known member
No one can make the argument that Argentina isn't expensive now. All my friends are all complaining. Is anyone out there trying to really argue that the peso isn't overvalued now? I have not heard that argument from anyone.
This is Argentina! Things can change very very quickly. Someone can be on top one year and the next flying out in a helicopter. I think things are looking good for Milei but much depends on how the elections go next year and what happens with the economy. Most people that are realistic will tell you the peso is overvalued and an eventual devaluation probably needs to happen. If not controlled now then maybe violently later if it keeps building up.
No one can predict how things will go and if they say they can they are lying to you. So far things are going well for Milei but that could change.
Milei’s ‘we want it all’ moment
We’re early into the experiment. But Javier and Karina, along with star political advisor Santiago Caputo, are already imagining the “Milei era,” which should last at least eight years and include control of the Casa Rosada, Buenos Aires City and Buenos Aires Province.
www.batimes.com.ar
earlyretirement
Moderator
Of course President Milei understands the risks of the peso getting too strong. But all of this is extremely complicated. It's a delicate dance of putting out a lot of fires simultaneously. Not everything can be solved overnight. Argentina needs to buy more time to continue to reform things. There are still a lot of regulations that need to be eliminated. There is a reason why they have a countdown clock of how many days they have left. They will rush to solve as many things as they can.
Anyone that thinks that all of this can be solved quickly and easily are mistaken. This is a multi-years process. He has sounded the alarm as well but he can't panic locals or the international investment community either. Just as all of these articles mention, the peso is overvalued right now. Prices can rationally be this high in the future when Argentina has paid off it's debt, salaries are higher and the GDP is in a strong position but it is not healthy to have prices this high as they are in USD terms while they still face a ton of problems and a tremendous amount of debt payments in the coming years.
For sure, another IMF package will come in 2025 but they can't just depend on this cash. They have to continue to rush structural reforms.
Solving all of Argentina's issues will take decades. This is a very good paper referenced in the WSJ opinion piece that @Uncle Wong mentioned. Worth a read.
Milei's economics: The first year and the challenges ahead <br>
President Javier Milei's first year in office rightly prioritized two fundamental issues: chronic fiscal deficits and economic regulations driven by rent-seekin
papers.ssrn.com
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Vince
Well-known member
Thanks for posting this. Interesting to read some of the comments from locals. I think many are underestimating the amount of debt that Argentina has coming due in 2025/2026 and beyond. It has been fun watching Argentine stocks go up this year. I have been happy to watch my portfolio go up. But some of these people thinking that it is just good for the peso to keep appreciating against the dollar don't really understand the history of what has happened in the past. Especially with Brazil. A dangerous situation.
Many people on that X post sound like locals that don't want to hear any bad news or someone pointing out potential issues. It seems like that analyst has been wrong about the Brazilian Real but some of what he is saying is not wrong. I do not know anyone that doesn't think that the peso will devalue eventually.
I have read many of your past posts earlier this year Larry. I didn't agree with you before when you kept talking about expensive prices but I agree with you now. None of my friends are getting raises high enough to match inflation in the past year. Cristina played around with inflation numbers and statistics and I think the government is probably fudging some numbers too.
I am not saying I disagree with anything Milei is doing. Phenomenal job so far. But all I know is I am paying $5 USD for coffees now in many places in BA. Painful seeing these price increases. Not just painful for me but watching my friends from BA dealing with them making local salaries.
Lots of friends I know in the private sector are only making $750 USD a month. This place is starting to get as expensive as Sydney or Oslo.
How can people think it is normal to pay $7 bucks for a Big Mac in a piss poor country like Argentina? Just the fact that locals are trying to argue the fact that it is ok that Big Macs cost $7 dollars in BA tells me people are just deluding themselves. My friends complain daily how expensive it has got. I read news article after news article that all say the peso is overvalued. Does not matter if they are right wing or left wing everyone agrees the peso is overvalued! And people posting how Argentina should be expensive. Crazy!
Not sure how paying $5 bucks for a coffee makes sense there! I don't pretend to know much about Argentina! I haven't even been there. Cancelled my trip a few times. But I know enough to see it is not normal for a country with salaries of Africa paying the prices of Australia or Switzerland.
People seem to hate that Robin Brooks. I read an article about him the other day too.
El duro pronóstico de un gurú de Wall Street sobre el dólar en la Argentina
Para el economista Robin Brooks, si Donald Trump pone fuertes aranceles sobre China, habrá devaluaciones en todos los mercados emergentes; advirtió que el peso argentino está “muy sobrevaluado” y que “necesita caer”
www.lanacion.com.ar
Avocado
Well-known member
Agree! No one I know is getting salary increases of 100% over last year. Look at inflation last year. It is silly for the government to claim that salaries are jumping up when the government doesn't want to give any increases! Every time they fight against paying what people need to make! It remind me of Emperor has no clothes on! All the people scared to say he has no clothes.
People rushing over themself to say how good Milei do. I read he get Ronald Reagan Award from the Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) advocacy group. I hear many American friend say Ronald Reagan great American president. Funny thing is Milei not lowered taxes much at all except for the rich people!
I think this will all blow up. He do opposite of what he say. Before he say Peso is sh*t currency and now do exact opposite. He say currency need to float and now he does not. He tell his cabinet not to travel and he travel all over world!
This will not last. Look at he fight with Vice President. They not even on speaking terms. And they expect good results from election! 🤣 He say IMF money is bad and now they ask IMF for $20 billion more! Finally I have many friend now that vote with Milei say to me they make big mistake. Let us see how things are next year this time.
Milei, Reagan and the 20% enemy rule
President Milei seems to be inverting Ronald Reagan’s equation – as in, disagree 20 percent of the time with me, and you are 80 percent my enemy.
batimes.com.ar
Jeb Spencer
Well-known member
Not all the articles say that salaries are matching inflation. I read a lot that say they have not. Probably some white collar jobs have matched inflation but many have not and government is fighting tooth and nail not to raise much but expect private companies to and bragging about that fact. There is a disconnect there for me.
Double Shifts, Empty Plates: Life As Working Poor In Milei’s Argentina
A year ago, Javier Milei’s government lifted price controls. Since then, food costs have spiked by more than 90%.
worldcrunch.com
Indeed Mike, it is extremely complicated. It took decades of bad government to create this mess and won't get solved overnight. Milei has been in office barely a year and has accomplished an extraordinary amount, without even a party.
I am deeply sympathetic to the frustrations of locals trying to survive right now, but in fairness, anyone arguing to get rid of Milei must ask themselves: what next? Because most of the crooks and imbeciles that have brought Argentina to its knees, begging for more IMF money, they are still in positions of power. The likely outcome is that one of them becomes the next President and trust in Argentina vanishes. It is unfortunately going take a lot of patience and sacrifice to reform the economy and dismantle the kleptocracy that it has become. There is a lot of low-hanging fruit though, and the faster Milei can get some of it done, the better off everyone will be.
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Jeb Spencer
Well-known member
Impossible to fix this mess so quickly. Like you said Craig decades and decades of corruption and grift. I have many friends in Argentina and also sympathetic to them. The ones that complain I ask them the same thing if they really think things would be better under a Cristina or worse. And some tell me anything but this as they could at least afford to eat before. That hits me very hard to hear. I am hopeful and so are many people that are struggling but I wonder how much longer they will wait.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
I understand both sides and can appreciate that many are struggling. But I also ask myself what if Milei fails? I am trying to imagine who takes over. I think if he fails people will never try this experiment again. I don't think he will fail but you never know how things will turn out. Some people say the IMF loan will help but others say this is a repeat of Macri. I think this time is a different situation with fiscal surpluses but that can only take you so far.
I saw that and was laughing! I thought the same thing. Americans for Tax Reform giving an award to someone that hasn't lowered any taxes except for wealthy! Only increasing cost of living and cutting back benefits for those that need it the most. Elderly and retired and took away paying for their medicine! What a joke!Agree! No one I know is getting salary increases of 100% over last year. Look at inflation last year. It is silly for the government to claim that salaries are jumping up when the government doesn't want to give any increases! Every time they fight against paying what people need to make! It remind me of Emperor has no clothes on! All the people scared to say he has no clothes.
People rushing over themself to say how good Milei do. I read he get Ronald Reagan Award from the Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) advocacy group. I hear many American friend say Ronald Reagan great American president. Funny thing is Milei not lowered taxes much at all except for the rich people!
I think this will all blow up. He do opposite of what he say. Before he say Peso is sh*t currency and now do exact opposite. He say currency need to float and now he does not. He tell his cabinet not to travel and he travel all over world!
This will not last. Look at he fight with Vice President. They not even on speaking terms. And they expect good results from election! 🤣 He say IMF money is bad and now they ask IMF for $20 billion more! Finally I have many friend now that vote with Milei say to me they make big mistake. Let us see how things are next year this time.
Milei, Reagan and the 20% enemy rule
President Milei seems to be inverting Ronald Reagan’s equation – as in, disagree 20 percent of the time with me, and you are 80 percent my enemy.
He has been in office a year and already caused so much damage. I admit that some of the other Presidents were not the best. Alberto Fernández turns out to have been the worst. I hope we get to this low hanging fruit sooner rather than later. People are suffering.
I have no doubt it feels like damage to many locals, but Milei was clear from the beginning that it would get worse before it gets better. There is no path to recovery for Argentina that doesn't involve sacrifice. "Not the best" is perhaps the most charitable way to describe your politicians over the past 30 years. If you look up the definition of "kleptocracy", Argentina is a poster child.
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