It’s incredible how the dollar fluctuates, yesterday it went down, and today it’s rising again. What will the future hold?
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I don't think anyone really knows for sure what will happen. The fact that it is jumping around so much shows that. Also, the rate probably depends on how much intervention is going on. Is the government still manipulating the rate? I read that they can't build up their reserves now. Sounds like some progress made but also seems to be a case of one step forward, one step backwards too.According to experts, since last July and for the coming months, inflation is expected to be just below 4% per month. This indicates that a certain floor has been reached, with an estimated monthly inflation rate of 3.9% for July.
Regarding the official dollar exchange rate, they forecast a nominal rate of $1,088.2 per dollar. They don’t always get it right, and here things change constantly. We’ll see what happens.
I would have to believe eventually the blue dollar will get stronger again. But there is so much intervention I can't tell what it will do in the short term.The blue dollar has been on a downward trend this week, today trading at 1335 for selling and 1355 for buying.
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What funny is that these kind of people criticized CFK and Massa for measures to control exchange rate and now they do the same thing. Let see if this time turn out different.I thought we would see another devaluation but Milei says it won't happen. It is difficult to know for sure what will happen as the government is manipulating the currency so much.
Milei says he won't devalue, downplays importance of currency controls - Buenos Aires Herald
Speaking at the Council of Americas, the Argentine president claimed that saying that GDP can’t grow under the ‘cepo’ is a ‘falacy'buenosairesherald.com
Milei is not to blame since he didn't implement the 'Cepo Cambiario'.I thought we would see another devaluation but Milei says it won't happen. It is difficult to know for sure what will happen as the government is manipulating the currency so much.
Milei says he won't devalue, downplays importance of currency controls - Buenos Aires Herald
Speaking at the Council of Americas, the Argentine president claimed that saying that GDP can’t grow under the ‘cepo’ is a ‘falacy'buenosairesherald.com
Exactly. He is trying to fix this trainwreck that he inherited. Laughable for others to criticize with no plan of their own. All things considered, things are going fairly well.Milei is not to blame since he didn't implement the 'Cepo Cambiario'.
What I wonder is what would the exchange rate be if they just let it float freely without manipulating it? It's only this low because of all the efforts by the government but what happens if the government doesn't do all of these measures? My girlfriend's father who is in business and finance here told me it should be over 2,000 to $1.The parallel exchange rate traded at $1,315, a level we hadn’t seen since mid-June; it’s now the lowest it’s been in months.
Dólar hoy: el blue y el riesgo país tocaron el valor más bajo en dos meses
El tipo de cambio paralelo cotizó a $1315, una cifra que no se observaba desde mediados de junio; el índice elaborado por JP Morgan también llegó al mínimo en meseswww.lanacion.com.ar
Interesting, what does he base that on? My favorite "Big Mac Index" is always fun to compare currencies, says the peso is 15% overvalued: https://www.economist.com/big-mac-indexWhat I wonder is what would the exchange rate be if they just let it float freely without manipulating it? It's only this low because of all the efforts by the government but what happens if the government doesn't do all of these measures? My girlfriend's father who is in business and finance here told me it should be over 2,000 to $1.
I'm a novice here @CraigM and still learning the ropes. My girlfriend's family voted for Milei but they don't agree with everything that he is doing. I will have to go more in detail with him but it seems like many of the wealthy here have their savings in dollars. And even middle class people that I have met have been saving in dollars vs. pesos.Interesting, what does he base that on? My favorite "Big Mac Index" is always fun to compare currencies, says the peso is 15% overvalued: https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index
I've read many articles that say that the peso is overvalued.I'm a novice here @CraigM and still learning the ropes. My girlfriend's family voted for Milei but they don't agree with everything that he is doing. I will have to go more in detail with him but it seems like many of the wealthy here have their savings in dollars. And even middle class people that I have met have been saving in dollars vs. pesos.
Many items here are more expensive vs. the States or Europe. And traveling outside of Argentina can be cheaper than staying in Argentina. Of course a big part of this is import taxes and it sounds like the government is getting rid of several of the import taxes so hopefully that helps.
It sounds like everyone wants the currency controls to end as quick as possible but it doesn't sound like that will happen any time soon. I don't know enough about current local conditions but I have always believed in a currency just floating freely. As I understand it, many were against Peronists messing around with the currency but it seems like that is what this government is also doing.
I've asked a few people what the exchange rate would be for the blue dollar if the government wasn't interfering at all with it and no one can answer that.
I hear you, macroeconomic predictions are most often wrong and nobody really knows. It's just fun to speculate and I'm no exception here!I'm a novice here @CraigM and still learning the ropes. My girlfriend's family voted for Milei but they don't agree with everything that he is doing. I will have to go more in detail with him but it seems like many of the wealthy here have their savings in dollars. And even middle class people that I have met have been saving in dollars vs. pesos.
Many items here are more expensive vs. the States or Europe. And traveling outside of Argentina can be cheaper than staying in Argentina. Of course a big part of this is import taxes and it sounds like the government is getting rid of several of the import taxes so hopefully that helps.
It sounds like everyone wants the currency controls to end as quick as possible but it doesn't sound like that will happen any time soon. I don't know enough about current local conditions but I have always believed in a currency just floating freely. As I understand it, many were against Peronists messing around with the currency but it seems like that is what this government is also doing.
I've asked a few people what the exchange rate would be for the blue dollar if the government wasn't interfering at all with it and no one can answer that.
Honestly it seems like no one really can predict accurately macroeconomic situation there. I agree with you it's fun to speculate how things will turn out. The more I read the more I get confused on what might happen.I hear you, macroeconomic predictions are most often wrong and nobody really knows. It's just fun to speculate and I'm no exception here!
Exactly correct. It's almost impossible for anyone to really accurately predict what will happen with exchange rate. There are so many wildcard factors here. If someone tells you they know what will happen with the economy, exchange rate, etc. they are lying.I hear you, macroeconomic predictions are most often wrong and nobody really knows. It's just fun to speculate and I'm no exception here!
Agree. I feel more confident than ever that things will improve here for the masses. The reason why many are willing to suffer is because they feel like for the first time a President isn't lying to them and telling it like it is. I do believe they should slow down the increases with transportation and utility increases. Transportation is one area that many countries won't ever be profitable on.Exactly correct. It's almost impossible for anyone to really accurately predict what will happen with exchange rate. There are so many wildcard factors here. If someone tells you they know what will happen with the economy, exchange rate, etc. they are lying.
Even some professional economists here will be honest and tell you they don't know what will happen next year.
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