Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[Vero]

No doubt the exchange rate would be different without the constant intervention. Not sure how long they will keep it up. If/when they stop the gap should go back up.

Almost US$500 million have been lost to lower parallel dollar rates - Buenos Aires Herald

Analysts estimate the government has spent that much to contain the exchange rate gap since announcing ‘Phase 2’ of its economic plan in mid-July

buenosairesherald.com

All of the interventions are very complicated. I have seen many interventions over the past decades. Sometimes they work in the short-term but I don't understand it all. Of course maybe this time might be different but you won't convince me of that. All the past attempts while it might have worked out in the short run it has never worked over the long term trying to control the exchange rate.

 

[Uncle Wong]

All of the interventions are very complicated. I have seen many interventions over the past decades. Sometimes they work in the short-term but I don't understand it all. Of course maybe this time might be different but you won't convince me of that. All the past attempts while it might have worked out in the short run it has never worked over the long term trying to control the exchange rate.

Agree. Hard to understand what will happen. Don't think anyone knows. I keep reading conflicting reports. Some say the CEPO could end soon then other news articles so it won't even happen at the earliest until the end of 2025 now. I don't even think the government knows what will happen. Since there has never been a president like Milei everything is a wildcard and up in the air.

 

[FuturoBA]

I found this chart telling. There has to be some sort of manipulation going on. Since December there's been fluctuations of the blue vs official rate, but now shows inflation almost converging in tandem.

 

[James Bond]

I found this chart telling. There has to be some sort of manipulation going on. Since December there's been fluctuations of the blue vs official rate, but now shows inflation almost converging in tandem.

Yes the government intervenes in the market to control exchange rate and keep the blue rate low. In Argentina sometimes works in the beginning but over longer history it has not worked out especially with net negative reserves. 2025 should be interesting with all their loan payments due. No one has still told me where the money will come from.

 

[Bob]

Yes the government intervenes in the market to control exchange rate and keep the blue rate low. In Argentina sometimes works in the beginning but over longer history it has not worked out especially with net negative reserves. 2025 should be interesting with all their loan payments due. No one has still told me where the money will come from.

Probably a good idea to see where the Finance Minister Caputo keeps all his money. It's certainly NOT in pesos. If you look at his asset declarations statement with the government, he has his cash outside of Argentina and certainly NOT in pesos. He keeps it all in US dollars. If he was so certain about the fate of the peso, I'm sure he would repatriate it back to Argentina and buy pesos. That ain't happening. Probably should follow his lead.

 

[fredy]

Anything can happen in Argentina. Yesterday, the blue dollar hit 1,235 pesos, setting a new record. This has sparked a lot of speculation. We'll see what happens next.

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[Jenn]

I found this chart telling. There has to be some sort of manipulation going on. Since December there's been fluctuations of the blue vs official rate, but now shows inflation almost converging in tandem.

View attachment 7182

@FuturoBA do you have the link to that website where you can see historical blue dollar rate by dates?

 

[legend]

I always check the historical value of the blue dollar on this site:

Dólar Blue Histórico | Dólar Histórico

Dolar Blue Historico. Cotización Dólar Histórico en Argentina. ¿A cuánto estaba el dólar? Precio de compra y venta, variación, gráfico.

dolarhistorico.com

 

[CecilM]

I usually check the historical value on this page; it's quite reliable:

Dólar Histórico - Cotización histórica del dólar en Argentina

Cotización Dólar Histórico en Argentina, cotizaciones históricas del dólar estadounidense. Euro Histórico

www.cotizacion-dolar.com.ar

 

[FuturoBA]

@FuturoBA do you have the link to that website where you can see historical blue dollar rate by dates?

@legend and @CecilM provided great resources, I like this one that has it in line graph form

Blue Dollar Rates : Dólar Blue Informal Rate of US Dollar in Argentina | Blue Dollar Rates

Dólar Blue or Blue Dollar is the cost of buying and selling US Dollar in a cueva, or clandestine financial house in Argentina. Best price if you are buying or selling physical US dollar with no involvement of any government-sanctioned or licensed entity

bluedollar.net

@Jenn Have you decided when you're coming down yet? Or with the blue dollar going down will you delay it... again.
Just wait until January-nope too hot -delay. April-bugs again, nope-delay. I think we see the picture

And I shouldn't give you too hard of time, I was supposed to come down August but like you will push that back to in my case around March.

 

[Jenn]

@legend and @CecilM provided great resources, I like this one that has it in line graph form

Blue Dollar Rates : Dólar Blue Informal Rate of US Dollar in Argentina | Blue Dollar Rates

Dólar Blue or Blue Dollar is the cost of buying and selling US Dollar in a cueva, or clandestine financial house in Argentina. Best price if you are buying or selling physical US dollar with no involvement of any government-sanctioned or licensed entity

bluedollar.net

@Jenn Have you decided when you're coming down yet? Or with the blue dollar going down will you delay it... again.
Just wait until January-nope too hot -delay. April-bugs again, nope-delay. I think we see the picture

And I shouldn't give you too hard of time, I was supposed to come down August but like you will push that back to in my case around March.

Thank you! I am here in Spain now. I have a ticket for December to come to Buenos Aires. With my luck the mosquitos will be bad again by the time December comes. I will come as long as my friends are still there. They are talking about possibly leaving BA earlier so if they come to Spain then I will probably put it off.

I am not in any big hurry now. But I will eventually make it there. My friends said a lot of expats have left.

 

[Betsy Ross]

Thank you! I am here in Spain now. I have a ticket for December to come to Buenos Aires. With my luck the mosquitos will be bad again by the time December comes. I will come as long as my friends are still there. They are talking about possibly leaving BA earlier so if they come to Spain then I will probably put it off.

I am not in any big hurry now. But I will eventually make it there. My friends said a lot of expats have left.

@Jenn I have also noticed it being more quiet with American tourists and don't see as many expats around lately. What is the reason your friends might possibly leave? Any specific reason?

 

[Wally]

I found this chart telling. There has to be some sort of manipulation going on. Since December there's been fluctuations of the blue vs official rate, but now shows inflation almost converging in tandem.

View attachment 7182

Once the government stops intervening in the markets the blue rate will jump up. I have been in Argentina many up and down cycles and the US dollar always rules over time. Don't think this time is any different.

 

[Billy Goat]

Once the government stops intervening in the markets the blue rate will jump up. I have been in Argentina many up and down cycles and the US dollar always rules over time. Don't think this time is any different.

I ran into some tourists at a coffee shop in Soho this weekend. Some from Australia and some from the UK. They were all complaining how expensive prices are compared to this time last year. They were shocked as they hadn't been back since last year. They asked me what I thought prices would do in the future. I couldn't predict if prices will be low again. I told them probably not but here in Argentina anything is possible.

Now that the weather is getting nice again and we are coming up on high season we'll see if less tourists come this year.

 

[Vince]

I ran into some tourists at a coffee shop in Soho this weekend. Some from Australia and some from the UK. They were all complaining how expensive prices are compared to this time last year. They were shocked as they hadn't been back since last year. They asked me what I thought prices would do in the future. I couldn't predict if prices will be low again. I told them probably not but here in Argentina anything is possible.

Now that the weather is getting nice again and we are coming up on high season we'll see if less tourists come this year.

It is extremely difficult to predict what will happen in the future here. I listened to Milei predicting the exchange rates for next year and I couldn't help but laugh. He predicted the official white rate would close this year at 1019.9 compared to the exchange rate at 962: $1 USD now. He said by December 2025 it would be 1,207 (+18.3%) and in 2026 it would hit 1,346 and 2027 1,446 to $1.

It is impossible to predict that far out but we will see how close we come to those predictions. Impossible to guess what it will be.

 

[Uncle Wong]

It is extremely difficult to predict what will happen in the future here. I listened to Milei predicting the exchange rates for next year and I couldn't help but laugh. He predicted the official white rate would close this year at 1019.9 compared to the exchange rate at 962: $1 USD now. He said by December 2025 it would be 1,207 (+18.3%) and in 2026 it would hit 1,346 and 2027 1,446 to $1.

It is impossible to predict that far out but we will see how close we come to those predictions. Impossible to guess what it will be.

Maybe with the way the government is intervening in the currency market they can better guess how they see things. But no one can still answer to me what happens to the exchange rate once the government stops propping it up? Or if they get rid of all CEPO. What will happen to exchange rate? Seems like they will keep delaying it but I'm curious what happens once it just floats freely?

 

[Larry]

It is a joke how much coffee costs here at cafes now. I am noticing now at places like Starbucks it is not crowded like before. I wonder if people are cutting back on staples like coffee during this recession. I would have to believe so.

Insane insane what coffee is going for now in most nicer cafes. Yesterday I paid almost 7500 for a capachino. Prices are very dear. More expensive than many places in America and definitely much more expensive than Spain and Italy where I can get a great coffee for 2 euros.

 

[Wally]

The blue dollar is sinking like a rock.

 

[Calgary Foodie]

The blue dollar is sinking like a rock.

Hopefully the dollar comes back later this year. Back when it was 1,500 to $1 USD I exchanged enough for 2 months worth of expenses. I should have changed over more. Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Faith]

And it sounds like the government has NO plans to end the CEPO anytime soon. So it's anyone's guess what will happen in 2025.