The government won't announce when the Cepo will end. One day they will just suddenly announce it. But it is not likely that they will end up before the elections next year because if something were to happen unexpectedly like people rushing to cash out dollars and inflation goes up it would be bad for the elections. IMF won't lend more money until the cepo ends.
The government should get rid of currency controls now while the rates are very similar. Waiting too long will be a mistake.
It doesn't seem like the government would want to end the cepo before the elections because if it caused a run up in the blue dollar and caused inflation to get worse again it would be bad for them. IMF doesn't want to give more money until cepo ends. So no telling what could happen. My friends that work in banks said they won't stop currency controls until after October 2025.
But how will the agriculture and beef sectors compete with Brazil and other countries with the very high prices? I would think there must be a devaluation of their currency in early 2025. Even most top investment banks predicted it should be much higher than it is. Argentina won't be able to stay competitive with the peso being this strong. Brazil's currency is so low.
www.telegraph.co.uk
I agree it would be better to get rid of currency restrictions sooner rather than later but it will be very difficult or impossible to do without having more funds from the IMF. Remember that Argentina is still at net negative reserves and all those billions from the blanqueo are not Argentina's and people are already starting to pull out money every day. They can't count on that. Without more money there could be a bank run again.It is good to see the blue dollar finally start going up a little the past few days. This can't be sustainable this overvalued peso. This is a great article that talks about how the peso is way overvalued. I guess tons of small companies are going to get killed because Milei is lifting import controls before lifting the currency controls. All of these local companies will probably go out of business because they won't be able to complete.
The author of this seems to make a lot of good points. Once the Cepo is removed the devaluation will happen and prices will go back up. I wonder with Brazil's currency getting devalued so much if this will cause problems like it did in 2001.
Argentina’s Javier Milei has made a horrible mistake
A year after his landslide victory, the president has blown his chance to allow market forces to unleash a supply-side miracle
But it sounds like even if they get rid of currency restrictions they won't really get rid of all of it and want to manipulate it. That isn't really getting rid of it! Just saw this on X. About a dirty float.
It jumped up to 1165 just now!
Now it goes up after I move out of BA! 🤣 The blue always goes up this time of the year. Let's see if this is just seasonal or the start of a new trend.
I've been meaning to ask you how are your folks doing now that your back?? Also how are the changes there in NY since you were last there? And what were you doing when you were here keeping the dollar down 😂?Now it goes up after I move out of BA! 🤣 The blue always goes up this time of the year. Let's see if this is just seasonal or the start of a new trend.
FinanzasArgy - Cotizaciones hoy en tiempo real del dólar, euro y commodities de Argentina
Obtenga las cotizaciones actualizadas del dólar, euro y commodities de Argentina. Conozca los precios del dólar blue, dolar cripto, dolar mep, dolar ccl, dolar oficial y más, así como las tasas de cambio del euro y real. También incluimos información sobre la soja, el maíz, el Merval, Nasdaq...www.finanzasargy.com
Hey @FuturoBA thanks for asking. My folks are doing ok. Not worse which is good as they were both deteriorating quickly. I think they are very happy to have us all here together in the same city. My kids miss BA. We all do. We come to NYC every year around the holidays and the last few years have gotten worse. The city has really gotten dodgy in some areas. Taking the subway used to be delightful but it isn't any fun now. More homeless camped out at subway stations.
Good to hear the folks are happy and seeing the family has probably energized them. When my father passed he held on long enough to see the family and make it through the holidays which gave us closure that he passed on his time. I will be sending out a prayer for you and yours.
I just got back from a few days in NYC and I totally agree. It's gone down hill over the years since COVID and then with this tremendous increase of illegals and migrants. I go to NYC every year and honestly probably won't go back for a while. We have family there so that is why we visit but I kid you not, within 5 minutes of arriving at Penn Station from Boston a Latino male tried to rob my wallet. Fortunately I keep it in the front of my pants. He also bumped into my wife and I think he ended up robbing another woman as we saw her screaming.
Thank you! I think you are right they seem so happy to have us close. They came down to BA every year to visit us except for the last few years which have been tough. Thanks for the prayers. It was tough uprooting our lives to come back but know we made the right decision. Sorry about your pops. That is always tough. We are hoping we have a few quality years left with them.
You have to be careful now. Before I never worried much but anytime I'm in train stations/subway you have to be on alert now. Almost like being in BA! Only in BA you will never see, hear or feel anything. Here in NYC tons of mental issues or just high. Agree about the marijuana smell all over now. We are hopeful with Trump in office things will change. Already feel like things will turn in the near year.
I am love love loving to see the blue go up every day this week. Finally! It was falling for the past few months but glad to see it going up now. I'm coming next month and dollar is going to go further. I hope it goes above 1,300 soon. I ask my local friends I met what it should be trading. it realistically and they all tell me much higher than 1,500 to $1. Some told me 2000 pesos to $1 !
