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Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?
- Thread starter James Bond
- Start date
We were also very happy with the exchange rate. We looked last month and it is much better for us. We had heard things were very expensive here now but not finding that to be the case or at least we were expecting much higher prices.
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
I don't think that anyone is paying too much attention to predictions. Besides it doesn't seem like it matters what the official dollar is as there is no guarantee that the blue dollar won't blow up. Reading these articles is a bit confusing but the long and short of it seems to be that the government doesn't know what will happen.
Same as others I ask around here. When I ask professionals here they all seem to say that the peso is still over-valued here even at 1,400. When I ask what a fair value is that is the tricky part no one seems to know the answer on how high it could go.
El Banco Central volvió a vender y muestra que le costará seguir acumulando reservas
La entidad se desprendió de US$6 millones en otra rueda de baja actividad y en la que permitió una suba del $2 del dólar mayorista
www.lanacion.com.ar
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
It will be interesting to see where the blue dollar ends the year at.
www.lanacion.com.ar
El despertar del dólar, entre el efecto mariposa y la necesidad de salir del cepo
La suba en la cotización de la divisa estadounidense se da en un momento en que hay luces de alerta en el sector externo; las causas y los efectos de los movimientos que se iniciaron en los últimos días, cuando todo parecía en calma tras la aprobación de la Ley Bases
www.lanacion.com.ar
TonyTigre
Well-known member
People often use historical data to support their opinions, but we should be aware that it makes a big difference what the date range of the data is being evaluated to come to their conclusions.
For example:
1. Wow, 40% increase in 2 months
If you just look at the last couple of months, one might conclude that the Blue Dollar went from around 1000 to 1400, which is roughly a 40% increase in 2 months.
2. Only 12% increase in 5.5 months
If you look back a little further, the Blue Dollar was around 1250 in late January of this year, 5.5 months ago. Going from 1250 to 1400 would mean an increase of only 12% in 5.5 months.
3. 40% increase in 9 months
You can also look further back to Oct 2023, 9 months ago, when the Blue Dollar reached 1000. Therefore, it went from 1000 to 1400, a 40% increase in 9 months.
People can give you all kinds of seemingly logical reasons as to why the exchange rate moved the way it did, but how many of these people placed some big FX options bets based on their predictions and are now retired with all that profit?
We know that forecasts and sentiments are often influenced by political views and conflicts of interests. Therefore, it would be better to plan for the possibility that the exchange rates can fluctuate quite a bit depending on which sets of facts are being emphasized over another on any given week.
For example:
1. Wow, 40% increase in 2 months
If you just look at the last couple of months, one might conclude that the Blue Dollar went from around 1000 to 1400, which is roughly a 40% increase in 2 months.
2. Only 12% increase in 5.5 months
If you look back a little further, the Blue Dollar was around 1250 in late January of this year, 5.5 months ago. Going from 1250 to 1400 would mean an increase of only 12% in 5.5 months.
3. 40% increase in 9 months
You can also look further back to Oct 2023, 9 months ago, when the Blue Dollar reached 1000. Therefore, it went from 1000 to 1400, a 40% increase in 9 months.
People can give you all kinds of seemingly logical reasons as to why the exchange rate moved the way it did, but how many of these people placed some big FX options bets based on their predictions and are now retired with all that profit?
We know that forecasts and sentiments are often influenced by political views and conflicts of interests. Therefore, it would be better to plan for the possibility that the exchange rates can fluctuate quite a bit depending on which sets of facts are being emphasized over another on any given week.
GraceH
Well-known member
Great analysis. I have read many articles but I still don’t understand all the dynamics. I don’t think anyone knows for sure. Even Milei’s people seem surprised by the move.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
It's always a good idea in Argentina to look at the longer term comparison as things can change drastically between relatively short periods of time. A 12% increase over almost 6 months is not a big jump in the context of Argentina.
Many things are never logical in Argentina. If you try to apply logics behind everything that happens, you will drive yourself crazy.
Nobody knows, it makes for entertainment and a topic for discussion. If one likes the narrative of the reasoning, they'll agree, if not they'll disagree.
Pink Panther
Well-known member
So true @FuturoBA! I have local friends that pretend like they know what the dollar will do. Then I ask them why they didn't either sell or buy USD and they never respond. What I do is only buy enough pesos to last me 1-2 months. Here we never know what will happen. But it doesn't hurt to buy enough pesos to last a little bit if you're comfortable with the exchange rate.
Avocado
Well-known member
Blue dollar continuing to fly fly fly. This morning 1,450 for $1 USD. New record.
www.lanacion.com.ar
Dólar hoy: el blue arrancó la semana con una suba de $20, mientras el mercado observó las reservas del Banco Central
El tipo de cambio paralelo cotizó a $1440 y marcó un nuevo récord nominal; esta semana, la entidad monetaria deberá desembolsar US$2500 millones por el pago a bonistas
www.lanacion.com.ar
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
The negative is that inflation which has been going down is sure to go back up. Terrible for locals.
Cali Baby
Member
This is true @TonyTigre. I haven't checked out exchange rates in a while. The last time I did it was around 1000 to $1. Now I see it hit 1440 to $1 in 2 months. I guess it's time to visit Argentina again! I would assume that inflation will get bad again? None of the people I met there saved anything in pesos. Everyone was immediately buying dollars right when they got paid. It sounds like this is happening again?
Not too many locals have any pesos to buy dollars! Most are struggling now just to get by.
lovelyM
Active member
Wow, the dollar tarjeta hit 1500 pesos today, making it the highest in the market. According to the experts, it's all because of the upcoming winter vacations starting next Monday. It's crazy how these things happen. It's interesting how the market works, and here, anything can happen.
Che Vos
Well-known member
Also day by day it depend how much the government interfere and buy or sell dollars to control exchange rate.
CecilM
Active member
New Record $1465 🫨
www.infobae.com
Dólar hoy en vivo: la cotización libre sube a $1.465 para la venta, un nuevo récord
La divisa informal gana 15 pesos en el día. En lo que va de julio anota una suba de 100 pesos o 7,3%. La brecha cambiaria alcanza el 59,2%
www.infobae.com
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