Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[Digital Nomad]

Argentina is becoming too expensive in dollars. I worry that it will get too expensive and we won't be competitive.

There is a lot of talk saying the same thing that it's becoming too expensive in dollars.

 

[Larry]

I don't know too much at all about exchange rates or currency but it doesn't sound like any kind of manipulation is good over the long run.


I asked AI and they all said there isn't any long-term success. It said there are cases where in the short run it might be considered successful usually over the long run it wasn't.

I never liked the currency controls no matter which president was in power. It is just wrong to not allow your currency to float and see where it ends up. I hated this under CFK and I hate it under Milei.

 

[Sylvia]

I never liked the currency controls no matter which president was in power. It is just wrong to not allow your currency to float and see where it ends up. I hated this under CFK and I hate it under Milei.

This is why everyone here just saves in dollars. We don't trust the peso over the long period of time. Never. Even now everyone I know saving in dollars and wait. People do not trust the peso. I worry that Argentina will keep borrowing more money and end with more debt and problems. The poverty rate is going up not down. Those government charts are lies. Just talk to people and poverty rates going up. 70% of people cut back on beef purchases.

People get salaries in pesos but quickly buy dollars and dollar inflation is over 105% All the bills go up more than government lies. More and more people are becoming poor. Middle class is being eliminated now and these people will become poor too. If the country becomes 60% to 70% poor like that article says then there is no way we can become successful.

 

[fredy]

The blue dollar is highly sensitive to the country's economic and political uncertainty. Although we've seen some drops in its value recently, this could be temporary and does not signal long-term stabilization. Inflationary pressures, the lack of dollar reserves, and widespread distrust in economic policies will continue to influence its exchange rate over the long term. So, I believe this is only a short-term dip, and the blue dollar is likely to rise again soon.

 

[Digital Nomad]

The blue dollar is highly sensitive to the country's economic and political uncertainty. Although we've seen some drops in its value recently, this could be temporary and does not signal long-term stabilization. Inflationary pressures, the lack of dollar reserves, and widespread distrust in economic policies will continue to influence its exchange rate over the long term. So, I believe this is only a short-term dip, and the blue dollar is likely to rise again soon.

Yes short term dip. Good to see the blue rate up today. It was going down every single day for a while. Everyone seems to be telling me this will change by the end of this year. I also remember reading a report somewhere that said many big US banks forecasted white rate to become devalued by December. I wonder how they know this?

 

[Betsy Ross]

I never liked the currency controls no matter which president was in power. It is just wrong to not allow your currency to float and see where it ends up. I hated this under CFK and I hate it under Milei.

Finally @Larry something I agree with you on. They just don't work over the long run. I thought that we would have made more progress getting rid of the currency controls but the longer this goes on the less hope I have that it will get solved soon and the more problems I think it will cause in the long run.

All that I know are buying dollars each chance they can get while the peso is so high. In the end the dollar always wins here. I don't trust what government says. First they say that cepo is negative and we must get rid of it asap. Now they say they can't get rid of it and need to keep intervening in the rate. I think it crazy some think peso will do better over time than usd. That never happen here.

People trust the dollar but there is the first time that I have seen some owners actually want to do a contract in pesos with inflation adjustment vs. dollars. It is actually surprising to see but it is happening now.

 

[legend]

And it keeps going up, which is good news for us...


The blue dollar rose this Tuesday, October 15, to $1,195 for purchase and $1,225 for sale

Dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotiza este martes 15 de octubre

Conocé a cuánto cotiza el dólar blue, el dólar MEP y el CCL.

www.ambito.com

 

[Digital Nomad]

And it keeps going up, which is good news for us...


The blue dollar rose this Tuesday, October 15, to $1,195 for purchase and $1,225 for sale

Dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotiza este martes 15 de octubre

Conocé a cuánto cotiza el dólar blue, el dólar MEP y el CCL.

www.ambito.com

Yes, it's finally good to see the blue dollar jumping up today. 3% today. Many people say that it will keep going up until the end of this year. Let's see if they are right or wrong.

 

[James Bond]

Yes, it's finally good to see the blue dollar jumping up today. 3% today. Many people say that it will keep going up until the end of this year. Let's see if they are right or wrong.

Hang in there. The peso is crazy overvalued. My guess is we finish the year much higher than what it is now. Today I see it jumped up 3.78% to 1235. Blue dollar probably should be above 1,600 by now at least.

 

[Finance Prof]

This is a good article in Bloomberg today explaining why the Cepo is so bad for Argentina but why Argentina won't be lifting it anytime soon.

https://archive.ph/BjTcW

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[pennyless]

Hang in there. The peso is crazy overvalued. My guess is we finish the year much higher than what it is now. Today I see it jumped up 3.78% to 1235. Blue dollar probably should be above 1,600 by now at least.

I hear all the time it is overvalued but what is the true value? I always ask friends this and they all tell me it is not where the blue dollar is trading at. Some days the blue exchange rate doesn't move at all. That seems impossible to me. I don't understand all the tricks the government is doing to keep it from moving up too much.

It seems like a year in no one knows what is fair or what for the dollar.

 

[Floripa]

I hear all the time it is overvalued but what is the true value? I always ask friends this and they all tell me it is not where the blue dollar is trading at. Some days the blue exchange rate doesn't move at all. That seems impossible to me. I don't understand all the tricks the government is doing to keep it from moving up too much.

It seems like a year in no one knows what is fair or what for the dollar.

Someone posted the steps the government was doing to intervene in the dollar and peso. It is on one of these threads. I live in Brazil and used to come to Argentina because it was cheap before Milei started. Now everything is expensive. Now people are coming to Brazil as it's cheaper. Inflation in Argentina past year has been very high.

I want to know how the peso would trade if the government doesn't do anything. Some people tell me over 2000 to 3000 pesos or more per dollar. I don't know if that is true or not.

 

[Melibaires]

Unfortunately, everything here costs a lot more. Milei still needs to take action regarding taxes since even basic necessities like medications are very expensive, despite having plenty of pharmaceutical plants here, actually more than in Spain.

In Argentina, the pharmaceutical industry is quite strong, with a lot of local manufacturers. However, high production costs and taxes make medication prices sky-high. This puts a heavy burden on people, especially those who rely on essential medicines. If Milei were to reform the tax policy, it could help bring those costs down and make healthcare more accessible for everyone.

Economy - A report revealed that medicines cost 5 times more in Argentina than in Spain - Infobae

A report revealed that medicines cost 5 times more in Argentina than in Spain - Infobae Source: https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/10/17/un-informe-revelo-que-los-medicamentos-salen-5-veces-mas-en-argentina-que-en-espana/ October 17, 2024 The UAS Health Costs Observatory warned about...

www.expatsba.com

 

[Jeb Spencer]

Unfortunately, everything here costs a lot more. Milei still needs to take action regarding taxes since even basic necessities like medications are very expensive, despite having plenty of pharmaceutical plants here, actually more than in Spain.

In Argentina, the pharmaceutical industry is quite strong, with a lot of local manufacturers. However, high production costs and taxes make medication prices sky-high. This puts a heavy burden on people, especially those who rely on essential medicines. If Milei were to reform the tax policy, it could help bring those costs down and make healthcare more accessible for everyone.

Economy - A report revealed that medicines cost 5 times more in Argentina than in Spain - Infobae

A report revealed that medicines cost 5 times more in Argentina than in Spain - Infobae Source: https://www.infobae.com/economia/2024/10/17/un-informe-revelo-que-los-medicamentos-salen-5-veces-mas-en-argentina-que-en-espana/ October 17, 2024 The UAS Health Costs Observatory warned about...

www.expatsba.com

They definitely need to figure out the tax situation. No one will believe the true exchange rate until it is free like other countries. It can't be too cheap and also not too expensive. Hope we see it soon but doesn't sound like it will happen this year.

 

[import export]

Someone posted the steps the government was doing to intervene in the dollar and peso. It is on one of these threads. I live in Brazil and used to come to Argentina because it was cheap before Milei started. Now everything is expensive. Now people are coming to Brazil as it's cheaper. Inflation in Argentina past year has been very high.

I want to know how the peso would trade if the government doesn't do anything. Some people tell me over 2000 to 3000 pesos or more per dollar. I don't know if that is true or not.

People think the economy has been fixed but it's still a mess. A better mess than before but still a mess. The more things change the more they stay the same. That's pretty much sums up Argentina's economy in a nutshell. The peso is definitely overvalued and everyone knows it's not worth what the government says it is, but everyone is just playing along.

You can see it off whack with the carry trade and the crazy costs of imported goods and goods made here in Argentina. Look at the price of things compared to the incomes of people living here. Milei came in talking about free markets, but let's get real. It's really just a different flavor of the same old government meddling. Before it was one group getting the perks, now it's another. Now the ones getting the perks are owners of the private healthcare companies (300% increase in fees over the past year); Edesur/Edenor and other utility companies. Aysa and other water companies. Private airlines and other hand selected companies. The losers are Argentines that are poor and middle class. Before the losses were probably more evenly distributed.

The typical person on the street is still the one getting the short end of the stick. Now under Milei even worse for the poor or middle-class average Joe. Milei made a big mistake partnering with Caputo. During his campaign he called Caputo the worst Minister of Economy in history. Now he called hin the best in history. It does not jive. Not many trust Caputo. Caputo has got caught in lie after lie. In the FT interview he said how no one is asking about ending currency controls. That is a lie. Milei in the same interview notes his frustration on why all the investors keep asking about it. They aren't even on the same page.

There is this grand illusion of financial freedom in Argentina. They say you can buy all the dollars your heart desires through the MEP, as if it's a magical portal. But hold onto your pesos, because this is where the sleight of hand begins. Picture this: You're an exporter, trapped in the MULC law's labyrinth, forced to exchange your hard-earned dollars at the BCRA's bargain basement rates. It's like being told you can shop anywhere you want, as long as it's at the world's most overpriced convenience store. Now, let's say you're a digital nomad, peddling your virtual wares to the global market. You triumphantly bring in a crisp, green $100 bill, only to watch it transform into a measly 96,000 pesos. When you try to turn those pesos back into dollars via MEP, you're left clutching a paltry $83. That's a 21% loss.

Congratulations! You've just participated in Argentina's favorite magic trick: the Disappearing Dollar Act. And they say progress because now you can even perform this magic via MercadoPago. Nothing says "financial innovation" quite like losing a fifth of your money with a tap of your smartphone, all while fattening owner of Mercado Libre.In this grand economic circus, it seems the only thing being exchanged at a fair rate is common sense for confusion.

 

[Jenn]

People think the economy has been fixed but it's still a mess. A better mess than before but still a mess. The more things change the more they stay the same. That's pretty much sums up Argentina's economy in a nutshell. The peso is definitely overvalued and everyone knows it's not worth what the government says it is, but everyone is just playing along.

You can see it off whack with the carry trade and the crazy costs of imported goods and goods made here in Argentina. Look at the price of things compared to the incomes of people living here. Milei came in talking about free markets, but let's get real. It's really just a different flavor of the same old government meddling. Before it was one group getting the perks, now it's another. Now the ones getting the perks are owners of the private healthcare companies (300% increase in fees over the past year); Edesur/Edenor and other utility companies. Aysa and other water companies. Private airlines and other hand selected companies. The losers are Argentines that are poor and middle class. Before the losses were probably more evenly distributed.

The typical person on the street is still the one getting the short end of the stick. Now under Milei even worse for the poor or middle-class average Joe. Milei made a big mistake partnering with Caputo. During his campaign he called Caputo the worst Minister of Economy in history. Now he called hin the best in history. It does not jive. Not many trust Caputo. Caputo has got caught in lie after lie. In the FT interview he said how no one is asking about ending currency controls. That is a lie. Milei in the same interview notes his frustration on why all the investors keep asking about it. They aren't even on the same page.

There is this grand illusion of financial freedom in Argentina. They say you can buy all the dollars your heart desires through the MEP, as if it's a magical portal. But hold onto your pesos, because this is where the sleight of hand begins. Picture this: You're an exporter, trapped in the MULC law's labyrinth, forced to exchange your hard-earned dollars at the BCRA's bargain basement rates. It's like being told you can shop anywhere you want, as long as it's at the world's most overpriced convenience store. Now, let's say you're a digital nomad, peddling your virtual wares to the global market. You triumphantly bring in a crisp, green $100 bill, only to watch it transform into a measly 96,000 pesos. When you try to turn those pesos back into dollars via MEP, you're left clutching a paltry $83. That's a 21% loss.

Congratulations! You've just participated in Argentina's favorite magic trick: the Disappearing Dollar Act. And they say progress because now you can even perform this magic via MercadoPago. Nothing says "financial innovation" quite like losing a fifth of your money with a tap of your smartphone, all while fattening owner of Mercado Libre.In this grand economic circus, it seems the only thing being exchanged at a fair rate is common sense for confusion.

I have never been to a country where there were currency restrictions or an official and unofficial rate. Sounds strange.

 

[Wally]

I have never been to a country where there were currency restrictions or an official and unofficial rate. Sounds strange.

It is not the norm. Argentina has restricted currency flows in/out of the country for many years. We are all hoping this changes next year.

 

[Blockchain]

Someone posted the steps the government was doing to intervene in the dollar and peso. It is on one of these threads. I live in Brazil and used to come to Argentina because it was cheap before Milei started. Now everything is expensive. Now people are coming to Brazil as it's cheaper. Inflation in Argentina past year has been very high.

I want to know how the peso would trade if the government doesn't do anything. Some people tell me over 2000 to 3000 pesos or more per dollar. I don't know if that is true or not.

It sounds like it is impossible to really know until the government gets rid of all capital controls. The level of intervention is too complex. I have been trying to study what the government is doing but difficult to track all of what they are doing. I read this and it sounds like there is a lot of manipulation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1847612385168920886

 

[Uncle Wong]

Just about every single article I read in international newspapers or magazines all say the peso is overvalued. Read this today.

https://archive.ph/aUuuk#selection-635.0-635.32

 

[Richard02]

So, today the Central Bank scooped up 23 million dollars, and that might just make the blue dollar keep going up.

Plus, their reserves are dropping, which freaks people out about the peso's stability. When folks feel like the peso isn’t safe, they rush to buy dollars, and that pushes the blue dollar price even higher. So yeah, with these buys, I wouldn’t be surprised if the blue dollar just keeps climbing.

Dólar hoy: la cotización libre avanzó a $1.240 para la venta

El dólar “blue” cerró ofrecido con alza de 15 pesos este lunes. Pasó una ganancia marginal de cinco pesos o 0,4% en el transcurso de octubre. La brecha cambiaria creció al 26%. El BCRA compró USD 23 millones en el mercado

www.infobae.com