Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[GlasgowJohn]

Seems like it is going so quickly now. Is it just the lowering of interest rates? That doesn't seem like it could be right? Where so many people really depositing their pesos into high interest bearing accounts? I thought locals always saved in USD? Can this explanation really be true? If interest rates are really 289% even if you're getting paid a high interest rate you are losing money just keeping it in the savings account. Something doesn't make sense.

I can't believe so many people were in fixed term deposits? @GlasgowJohn do you keep your savings in fixed term deposits? Seems like a losing proposition.

Parallel dollar exchange rates increase by up to 10% in two days - Buenos Aires Herald

The blue dollar rate is only 20 pesos away from its all-time high following relative calm

buenosairesherald.com

Sorry @Gus UK , I missed this

We dont keep any savings within the Argie banking system

There was some sense in fixed deposits if you were liquid in Pesos in January and February / the rates offered were good and as the grey/blue USD was stable , you could actually make money.

But things change so fast here , you could be caught offside with a fixed deposit.

 

[Jenn]

Sorry @GusUK , I missed this

We dont keep any savings within the Argie banking system

There was some sense in fixed deposits if you were liquid in Pesos in January and February / the rates offered were good and as the grey/blue USD was stable , you could actually make money.

But things change so fast here , you could be caught offside with a fixed deposit.

My friend there says that locals spend money as fast as they can while it is worth money. It looks like the exchange rate is fairly stable since the new President took over. If anything the dollar seems like it is gaining ground. I hope by next month it goes even higher. That helps for tourists.

 

[Bob]

Woo Hoo! Looks like some of you were right. The blue dollar is jumping today! We might see 1,300 to $1 USD today! Looks like the crypto rate is already there.

CriptoYa - Precios de criptomonedas

Cotizaciones de Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT y otras criptomonedas en Latinoamérica.

criptoya.com

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

 

[crypto]

Sorry @Gus UK , I missed this

We dont keep any savings within the Argie banking system

There was some sense in fixed deposits if you were liquid in Pesos in January and February / the rates offered were good and as the grey/blue USD was stable , you could actually make money.

But things change so fast here , you could be caught offside with a fixed deposit.

I don't know even one person that holds ANY big savings in Argentine pesos. Everyone I know immediately buys US dollars and cashes in as needed.

Woo Hoo! Looks like some of you were right. The blue dollar is jumping today! We might see 1,300 to $1 USD today! Looks like the crypto rate is already there.

CriptoYa - Precios de criptomonedas

Cotizaciones de Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT y otras criptomonedas en Latinoamérica.

criptoya.com

Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar

Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA

www.dolarito.ar

Yes I see rates going up. Looks like demand is up.

 

[Finance Prof]

I don't know even one person that holds ANY big savings in Argentine pesos. Everyone I know immediately buys US dollars and cashes in as needed.


Yes I see rates going up. Looks like demand is up.

Meanwhile USD saving deposits are going up since Milei got elected.

 

[Spend Thrift]

This article says people are selling their dollars but blue dollar is going up.

Argentines suddenly need pesos after Milei pitched dollarisation

More people in Argentina are now selling some of their dollar savings for pesos to make ends meet than those buying greenbacks – the abrupt revival of demand is an unexpected consequence of President Milei's shock-therapy policies.

www.batimes.com.ar

 

[Larry]

This article says people are selling their dollars but blue dollar is going up.

Argentines suddenly need pesos after Milei pitched dollarisation

More people in Argentina are now selling some of their dollar savings for pesos to make ends meet than those buying greenbacks – the abrupt revival of demand is an unexpected consequence of President Milei's shock-therapy policies.

www.batimes.com.ar

This data from the government is a few months behind. Also it only accounts for official exchanges and most likely the majority at cuevas is not registered anywhere.

 

[Swowbird]

This data from the government is a few months behind. Also it only accounts for official exchanges and most likely the majority at cuevas is not registered anywhere.

Yes you can never really count on government official figures when talking about how much cash locals are buying and selling. Most of it is on the black market. I look at the blue dollar exchange rates which have gone up 20% since last month.

 

[Finance Prof]

In Argentina, you only need to wait. What goes down must go back up. Blue dollar hit a record this morning of 1,370 to $1 USD.

 

[Larry]

In Argentina, you only need to wait. What goes down must go back up. Blue dollar hit a record this morning of 1,370 to $1 USD.

View attachment 6536

While Milei thinks he is saving the world and going to win Nobel prizes inflation will go back up. The difference between the official white rate and the blue rate is spreading far apart again. So he will probably have to devalue again which will cause inflation to go back up. This idiot is not as smart as he thought he was. 😂

 

[Digital Nomad]

I guess this thread is a good example if you wait long enough then things will have flip flopped completely. Rather than start a new thread asking why the blue dollar is going up I thought I'd post it here. What is causing the blue dollar to go up so quickly now?

​

 

[Larry]

I guess this thread is a good example if you wait long enough then things will have flip flopped completely. Rather than start a new thread asking why the blue dollar is going up I thought I'd post it here. What is causing the blue dollar to go up so quickly now?

​

Very true if you wait long enough everything can turn upside down in Argentina.

Exchange rate is complex issue and many factors but probably the market isn't happy that Luis Caputo (Minister of Economy) admitted that talks with IMF haven't even started yet. Caputo is more realistic and says it is absolutely essential to have an agreement in place with the IMF. And negotiations haven't even started yet!

While Milei is playing make believe rockstar and accepting fake and dodgy right-wing awards around Europe and speculating if he will win the Nobel prize, people are seeing he and Caputo don't see things the same way.

The austerity measures are making things worse. The recession is getting worse and when that happens there will be safety to the dollar. @Digital Nomad you can read this article which will explain things.

Para Javier Milei es posible salir del cepo sin tener un acuerdo con el FMI que traiga fondos frescos

El Presidente indicó que el único paso que resta para eliminar las trabas cambiarias es “terminar con los mecanismos de emisión monetaria”. El ministro de Economía Luis Caputo, en cambio, considera imprescindible contar con un acuerdo con el organismo. Pero las negociaciones ni siquiera arrancaron

www.infobae.com

 

[Digital Nomad]

Very true if you wait long enough everything can turn upside down in Argentina.

Exchange rate is complex issue and many factors but probably the market isn't happy that Luis Caputo (Minister of Economy) admitted that talks with IMF haven't even started yet. Caputo is more realistic and says it is absolutely essential to have an agreement in place with the IMF. And negotiations haven't even started yet!

While Milei is playing make believe rockstar and accepting fake and dodgy right-wing awards around Europe and speculating if he will win the Nobel prize, people are seeing he and Caputo don't see things the same way.

The austerity measures are making things worse. The recession is getting worse and when that happens there will be safety to the dollar. @Digital Nomad you can read this article which will explain things.

Para Javier Milei es posible salir del cepo sin tener un acuerdo con el FMI que traiga fondos frescos

El Presidente indicó que el único paso que resta para eliminar las trabas cambiarias es “terminar con los mecanismos de emisión monetaria”. El ministro de Economía Luis Caputo, en cambio, considera imprescindible contar con un acuerdo con el organismo. Pero las negociaciones ni siquiera arrancaron

www.infobae.com

Thank you Larry for that link. This is one complicated country. When do you think Argentina will go to a true floating exchange rate without white/blue markets?

 

[Finance Prof]

Thank you Larry for that link. This is one complicated country. When do you think Argentina will go to a true floating exchange rate without white/blue markets?

They would need to get rid of the CEPO. @Digital Nomad

Read this:

Cepo & Currency Competition

When will the Milei government lift the dreaded "Cepo" (fx restrictions)?

www.bowtiedmara.io

 

[Vince]

They would need to get rid of the CEPO. @Digital Nomad

Read this:

Cepo & Currency Competition

When will the Milei government lift the dreaded "Cepo" (fx restrictions)?

www.bowtiedmara.io

That is a good read but getting rid of the Cepo is easier said than done. @Digital Nomad things here are very complicated if you haven't figured it out.

 

[FuturoBA]

I guess this thread is a good example if you wait long enough then things will have flip flopped completely. Rather than start a new thread asking why the blue dollar is going up I thought I'd post it here. What is causing the blue dollar to go up so quickly now?

​

Reminds me of a saying I heard about Argentina -if you leave for 20 days and come back, everything's different, and when you leave for 20 years and come back, everything's the same-

 

[Betsy Ross]

Reminds me of a saying I heard about Argentina -if you leave for 20 days and come back, everything's different, and when you leave for 20 years and come back, everything's the same-

This is quite true @FuturoBA. You can see how things change from one month to the other. Yet over time it is very difficult for Argentina to turn around. I hope this time is different but even so it will take many years for a turn around.

 

[Jenn]

Reminds me of a saying I heard about Argentina -if you leave for 20 days and come back, everything's different, and when you leave for 20 years and come back, everything's the same-

What a roller coaster. Just seeing the rapid changes over a few months time can make your head spin.

 

[Ron]

In the midst of the significant rise of the dollar, Milei made harsh accusations against an IMF member.

Milei accuses IMF staff member of belonging to international left-wing group - Buenos Aires Herald

As the ‘blue dollar’ continues to surge, he denied he would devalue the peso

buenosairesherald.com

 

[Betsy Ross]

In the midst of the significant rise of the dollar, Milei made harsh accusations against an IMF member.

Milei accuses IMF staff member of belonging to international left-wing group - Buenos Aires Herald

As the ‘blue dollar’ continues to surge, he denied he would devalue the peso

buenosairesherald.com

Oh boy. I hope he doesn't pick a fight with the IMF. Not sure he can win that fight.