Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[Betsy Ross]

Yeah a lot of economists is saying the peso is way overvalued. Some friends in finance tell me the USD has to strengthen against the peso. I hope they are right.

Milei Says Argentina Is ‘Very Close’ to Lifting FX Controls

(Bloomberg) -- Argentine President Javier Milei sees his government lifting currency controls very soon as his economic team works to clean up the central bank’s balance sheet. Most Read from BloombergSlovak Premier Fighting for Life After Assassination AttemptChina Considers Government Buying...

finance.yahoo.com

Might be true but it is really difficult to tell. I don't think anyone knows for sure one way or another what will happen.

 

[Avocado]

Might be true but it is really difficult to tell. I don't think anyone knows for sure one way or another what will happen.

No one know what will happen. If we know we be rich.

 

[Digital Nomad]

No one know what will happen. If we know we be rich.

True. I read this article on Cuba today and I thought of Argentina on how it used to be. We have come a long way fairly quickly and hopefully things will continue to improve.

Long lines form and frustration grows as Cuba runs short of cash

Alejandro Fonseca stood in line for several hours outside a bank in Havana hoping to withdraw Cuban pesos from an ATM. But the cash ran out when it was almost his turn.

apnews.com

 

[Finance Prof]

Many economists including in the US for big banks are saying by the end of the year the blue dollar will be back to 1,500 pesos to $1 USD. I just saw this economist on X. I don't know him but some big banks including JP Morgan I've seen the 1,500 figure floated around. I still would rather hold USD vs. Pesos.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790713321437511802

 

[Wally]

Many economists including in the US for big banks are saying by the end of the year the blue dollar will be back to 1,500 pesos to $1 USD. I just saw this economist on X. I don't know him but some big banks including JP Morgan I've seen the 1,500 figure floated around. I still would rather hold USD vs. Pesos.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1790713321437511802

I wouldn't listen to ANY Argentine economist. None of them really know what is going to happen.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Seems like they are just guessing. I read some reports where they said they thought the official rate was going to 1,600 by the end of the year and now it looks like they are saying lower?

Sube el dólar blue y vuelve a cotizar a $ 1100

A cuánto cotiza el dólar financiero MEP y el dólar CCL hoy jueves 16 de mayo. Cómo es la brecha cambiaria y a cuánto está el tipo de cambio oficial en todos los bancos de la City.

www.cronista.com

 

[Finance Prof]

Seems like they are just guessing. I read some reports where they said they thought the official rate was going to 1,600 by the end of the year and now it looks like they are saying lower?

Sube el dólar blue y vuelve a cotizar a $ 1100

A cuánto cotiza el dólar financiero MEP y el dólar CCL hoy jueves 16 de mayo. Cómo es la brecha cambiaria y a cuánto está el tipo de cambio oficial en todos los bancos de la City.

www.cronista.com

Yes anyone's guess. At the same time the % of Treasuries held by foreign countries is falling drastically so no telling how the USD will fair by year end. This keeps dropping each year and looks like it's accelerating.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791153008077606945

 

[Calgary Foodie]

No one really knows. We own a place in Mexico and some of our Mexican banker friends have been wrong the past few years. They kept telling me the USD would come back and we are at multi-year lows with the US dollar. No one really knows how bad/good it will get. I follow the sage advice in Argentina better to save US dollars vs. pesos.

 

[Nasdaq]

This was a great article on the CEPO. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.

Cepo & Currency Competition

When will the Milei government lift the dreaded "Cepo" (fx restrictions)?

www.bowtiedmara.io

 

[Digital Nomad]

This was a great article on the CEPO. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.

Cepo & Currency Competition

When will the Milei government lift the dreaded "Cepo" (fx restrictions)?

www.bowtiedmara.io

The more I research the more I see how difficult the laws here are. I'm not sure Milei can change all of this during his term in office. IMF says he has to fix it's exchange rate problem but the more I look, the more I see how difficult the laws are here and the up hill battle President Milei has.

Argentina needs to solve its exchange rate problem, IMF spokeswoman says

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Spokeswoman Julie Kozack said that Argentina needed to lift the exchange rate ceiling if the government were to protect the country's Central Bank reserves. Kozack's remarks during a press conference came a day after Economy Minister Luis Toto Caputo announced...

en.mercopress.com

 

[lemonade]

Nice action on the blue dollar today going up to 1,120 to $1 USD. What do you expats prefer? For the economy not to improve and your blue dollar to be high? Supporting Milei seems counter intuitive for you to have a higher blue dollar rate. My family here all has dollar savings and say although they are glad top see things improve they preferred the strong blue dollar. But some are seeing we will see a strong blue dollar no matter what later. I'm not sure what to believe.

 

[Wally]

Nice action on the blue dollar today going up to 1,120 to $1 USD. What do you expats prefer? For the economy not to improve and your blue dollar to be high? Supporting Milei seems counter intuitive for you to have a higher blue dollar rate. My family here all has dollar savings and say although they are glad top see things improve they preferred the strong blue dollar. But some are seeing we will see a strong blue dollar no matter what later. I'm not sure what to believe.

That is a good question. And most probably won't answer it honestly. Many will say they want things to improve here but most people that are expats want to see a strong blue dollar and lower cost of living for themselves. Self preservation and self interest usually trumps.

 

[Vince]

Nice action on the blue dollar today going up to 1,120 to $1 USD. What do you expats prefer? For the economy not to improve and your blue dollar to be high? Supporting Milei seems counter intuitive for you to have a higher blue dollar rate. My family here all has dollar savings and say although they are glad top see things improve they preferred the strong blue dollar. But some are seeing we will see a strong blue dollar no matter what later. I'm not sure what to believe.

For me it's a balance of wanting to see things improve but Wally has a point as drastically increasing cost of living has it's consequences as well.

I think everyone agrees Argentina HAD to change. The old system was not possible. You were going to see hyperinflation which has its own problems. My biggest issue is with kids I would rather have things get more expensive vs. all kinds of crime and chaos which is what we would have seen if Milei didn't win. Being always dependent on the IMF isn't a long term solution. You are seeing all sort of corruption and crime uncovered. This had to happen.

I'm ok with paying higher COL now if it means it will help cut down inflation and get things working here. Still a lot to fix and not a walk in the park by any means.

 

[crypto]

Nice action on the blue dollar today going up to 1,120 to $1 USD. What do you expats prefer? For the economy not to improve and your blue dollar to be high? Supporting Milei seems counter intuitive for you to have a higher blue dollar rate. My family here all has dollar savings and say although they are glad top see things improve they preferred the strong blue dollar. But some are seeing we will see a strong blue dollar no matter what later. I'm not sure what to believe.

Nice 7.7% rise on the week! I hope to see more of the same. Most expats just want the blue dollar to go back up. I'm sure everyone wants to see conditions in Argentina improve but all the expats I know just want an affordable cost of living here. I can't help but think the blue dollar will start to go back up.

Jornada financiera: el dólar libre extendió la suba por la baja de tasas y el BCRA compró USD 139 millones

El billete subió 20 pesos a $1.120, un máximo desde el 21 de febrero. El BCRA compró USD 139 millones en el mercado. El S&P Merval bajó 1% y también cedieron los bonos después de la monumental licitación de Letras por $11,7 billones

www.infobae.com

 

[memories]

I am not sure if someone already posted this link but it was very educational to learn about CEPO and what Milei is trying to do. It sounds like once locals can buy as many dollars as they want the exchange rate will be favorable again for expats with dollars.

Cepo & Currency Competition

When will the Milei government lift the dreaded "Cepo" (fx restrictions)?

www.bowtiedmara.io

 

[jem]

A new rise in the blue dollar pushes the bill to its highest value in 4 months.

Nueva suba del dólar blue lleva al billete al valor más alto en 4 meses

A cuánto cotiza el dólar financiero MEP y el dólar CCL hoy lunes 20 de mayo. Cómo es la brecha cambiaria y a cuánto está el tipo de cambio oficial en todos los bancos de la City.

www.cronista.com

 

[jmerl]

A new rise in the blue dollar pushes the bill to its highest value in 4 months.

Nueva suba del dólar blue lleva al billete al valor más alto en 4 meses

A cuánto cotiza el dólar financiero MEP y el dólar CCL hoy lunes 20 de mayo. Cómo es la brecha cambiaria y a cuánto está el tipo de cambio oficial en todos los bancos de la City.

www.cronista.com

 

[Sunny]

"...los analistas coinciden en que la actual tendencia alcista para el dólar libre y también los bursátiles debería moderarse en el corto plazo." ("...analysts agree that the current upward trend for the free dollar and also stock exchanges should moderate in the short term.")

El dólar libre escaló más de 5% en el día: los 4 motivos de la suba

El dólar “blue” avanzó 60 pesos o 5,4%, a $1.180 para la venta, un máximo desde el 1 de febrero

www.infobae.com

 

[Finance Prof]

"...los analistas coinciden en que la actual tendencia alcista para el dólar libre y también los bursátiles debería moderarse en el corto plazo." ("...analysts agree that the current upward trend for the free dollar and also stock exchanges should moderate in the short term.")

El dólar libre escaló más de 5% en el día: los 4 motivos de la suba

El dólar “blue” avanzó 60 pesos o 5,4%, a $1.180 para la venta, un máximo desde el 1 de febrero

www.infobae.com

Truth is no one knows for sure. Many people think the blue dollar is too low. Hard to know one way or another but I'd not recommending betting against the dollar. Over a long period it always wins.

 

[Jenn]

I never saw a country where things can change so much so quickly.