GlasgowJohn
Well-known member
Yip but even USD earners are suffering - they are earning 20% less in pesos than one month ago.
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Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?
- Thread starter James Bond
- Start date
James Bond
Well-known member
Exactly. We are all accustomed to blue dollar only moving one direction and strange to see locals buying pesos. I don't believe they believe in the peso so much as they are desperate and spending their USD savings to just pay the bills due to the severe inflation. My girlfriends family has been selling USD to make up the difference on paying for food, utilities, prepago/healthcare and they say their car insurance has skyrocketed as well as gas.
I'd rather leave before the sh*t hits the fan.
Argentina keeps getting more and more expensive for those that have Dollars.
www.lanacion.com.ar
Cuánto cuesta comprar los mismos productos en Argentina, EE.UU., España y Brasil
Desde diciembre, el tipo de cambio real multilateral que mide el Banco Central cayó un 18%, lo que muestra la apreciación reciente del peso
www.lanacion.com.ar
@Larry it looks like you were correct that it keeps getting more expensive. How is the dollar staying so weak and seems to stay around 1,000 pesos to $1USD while general inflation of the peso keeps going up. How do they manipulate it like that???Argentina keeps getting more and more expensive for those that have Dollars.
Cuánto cuesta comprar los mismos productos en Argentina, EE.UU., España y Brasil
Desde diciembre, el tipo de cambio real multilateral que mide el Banco Central cayó un 18%, lo que muestra la apreciación reciente del peso
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
You can read this article that discusses it a bit.
Carlos Melconian: “La licuadora funcionó excepcionalmente, pero en algún momento fundirá biela”
Según el economista, el país se encuentra frente a un cambio cultural en el que ya no se cuestiona que el déficit fiscal es perjudicial; además, analiza qué pasará con el dólar y explica cuál es para él la verdad sobre la nueva fórmula jubilatoria
www.lanacion.com.ar
Spend Thrift
Well-known member
I am not expert so don't quote me on it but I was having breakfast the other day with my neighbor that is a banker and he told. me that that Milei has turned off the printing press and they aren't printing as many pesos and there is a far lower supply of pesos since Milei took office in December. He is also cutting spending by the government. Governmental offices are getting closed and he just announced 70,000 more layoffs are coming of wasteful governmental employees that do very little to nothing.
So many locals that saved their US dollars are now having to spend all those savings and BUY Argentine pesos. Before people were buying up US dollars with their savings and their salaries. But you have a ton of spending, less printing and less pesos to go around.
So many locals that saved their US dollars are now having to spend all those savings and BUY Argentine pesos. Before people were buying up US dollars with their savings and their salaries. But you have a ton of spending, less printing and less pesos to go around.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
Yes this is correct @Spend Thrift. Your banker friend is correct. This is more or less what is happening.
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
Thank you for this explanation. It is very simple but easy to understand.
What about before? I was reading that the government would try to manipulate the exchange rate selling USD before. Is this still done? It seems like the government is saving up and building up US dollar reserves now. Can the Argentine government manipulate the exchange rate?
Billy Goat
Well-known member
Argentina has tried to manipulate the exchange rate before. However, no single entity possesses the ability to dictate or "keep" the dollar at a particular rate for long. Historical attempts by Argentine governments to maintain such control have involved spending significant amounts of borrowed $$$ to support the peso, with little success. The value of the peso fluctuates based on a multitude of factors including supply and demand, consumer sentiment, global circumstances such as worldwide events like wars and also oil prices, as well as domestic economic conditions and policies.
In recent years, we've observed fluctuations in the dollar's value against the peso, which largely correspond to these broader economic dynamics. However, the current situation is primarily driven by internal Argentine economic factors, concerns, and rising prices. While inflation plays a role, other issues such as the removal of price controls on rents have also contributed. For example, many Argentines have experienced substantial rent increases upon contract renewals, leading to ripple effects across various sectors. This isn't something that the government can simply "control" – it illustrates the consequences of deregulation and the removal of price controls.
old fart
Active member
Hold on though. Not as simple as that. Read this:
La "maquinita" de pesos en la era Milei: cuánto emitió el Banco Central y con qué fines
Desde el desembarco del libertario en la Casa Rosada, la autoridad monetaria mantuvo encendida la impresora de moneda nacional aunque modificó el destino de los montos. Por qué se habla de una emisión "benigna". La base monetaria cayó en términos reales pese a la creación de dinero.
www.perfil.com
Finance Prof
Well-known member
The government controls the price of the dollar by buying or selling dollars through the Argentina Central Bank, but they keep strict limits on how much regular people can buy.
Milei and his team say they'll remove these limits when they think it's safe, because if they did it now, there would certainly be a rush to buy dollars. Even though they say the Argentina Central Bank dollar is close to its real value, they worry it will go up if people can buy as many dollars as they want.
Under President Milei, we don't have a freely determined exchange rate. Instead, we have what's called a crawling peg. When they came into power, the government set the value of the dollar at 800 pesos to $1USD, and they buy and sell dollars every day to make sure the value goes up by about 2% each month.
Some people think part of their plan is to cause a recession and make wages and money less available. That way, people won't have as much money to spend on dollars, especially if prices have doubled or tripled in just a few months.
Milei and his team say they'll remove these limits when they think it's safe, because if they did it now, there would certainly be a rush to buy dollars. Even though they say the Argentina Central Bank dollar is close to its real value, they worry it will go up if people can buy as many dollars as they want.
Under President Milei, we don't have a freely determined exchange rate. Instead, we have what's called a crawling peg. When they came into power, the government set the value of the dollar at 800 pesos to $1USD, and they buy and sell dollars every day to make sure the value goes up by about 2% each month.
Some people think part of their plan is to cause a recession and make wages and money less available. That way, people won't have as much money to spend on dollars, especially if prices have doubled or tripled in just a few months.
Bobbie Burgers
Well-known member
Exactly. And of course what is everyone doing right now? They have been selling their USD stash. So the less dollars they have the better it is for the government.
Things keep getting more expensive and that trend probably will keep getting worse. I told all of you.
www.infobae.com
Las 4 claves por las que el dólar libre vale menos que $1.000 y perdió la mitad de su valor desde que asumió Milei
El “blue” opera a $980, un mínimo desde el 15 de diciembre. Con una inflación acumulada de 90% en cuatro meses, vale 47% menos en términos reales. Por qué el billete verde es el gran derrotado en el mundo inversor
www.infobae.com
No Pesos
Active member
I have to admit. You were right Larry. Everything is double of what it was than a few months ago.Argentina always has had inflation but not that fast.Things keep getting more expensive and that trend probably will keep getting worse. I told all of you.
Las 4 claves por las que el dólar libre vale menos que $1.000 y perdió la mitad de su valor desde que asumió Milei
El “blue” opera a $980, un mínimo desde el 15 de diciembre. Con una inflación acumulada de 90% en cuatro meses, vale 47% menos en términos reales. Por qué el billete verde es el gran derrotado en el mundo inversor
earlyretirement
Moderator
Blue dollar falls below 1,000 again.
Argentina’s blue dollar falls below AR$1,000 again, brecha at 12.5% - Buenos Aires Herald
International reserve accumulation and the grains harvest have seen the parallel rate drop by more than a fifth since its December peak
buenosairesherald.com
Blue dollar continues to fall, exchange rate gap between the official and the blue is minimal.
I wonder if it will continue to go down.
www.cronista.com
I wonder if it will continue to go down.
Dólar hoy y dólar blue hoy, EN VIVO: cuál es la cotización del jueves 11 de abril minuto a minuto
A cuánto está el dólar blue hoy jueves 11 de abril. Cuál es el precio del dólar oficial y de los dólares financieros CCL y MEP. Toda la información que necesitas sobre cómo sigue la semana en los mercados. Bonos, acciones, riesgo país, Cedears, plazos fijos.
www.cronista.com
Vince
Well-known member
No one knows for sure. I saw a report from JP Morgan that predicted by December 2024 it would be 1,500 pesos to $1 USD but I think no one knows for sure. I have been in Argentina a long time and typically it always pays to stay in USD for the long haul. Maybe things will be different with Milei. No one knows for sure.Blue dollar continues to fall, exchange rate gap between the official and the blue is minimal.
I wonder if it will continue to go down.
Dólar hoy y dólar blue hoy, EN VIVO: cuál es la cotización del jueves 11 de abril minuto a minuto
A cuánto está el dólar blue hoy jueves 11 de abril. Cuál es el precio del dólar oficial y de los dólares financieros CCL y MEP. Toda la información que necesitas sobre cómo sigue la semana en los mercados. Bonos, acciones, riesgo país, Cedears, plazos fijos.
The blue dollar is going up a bit now. That is good to see. I'm curious how it performs throughout this year.
www.dolarito.ar
Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar
Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA
GlasgowJohn
Well-known member
The movement in the past two days is a clear reaction to the fall in interest rates. Should be interesting to see what happens the rest of the week
Yeah a lot of economists is saying the peso is way overvalued. Some friends in finance tell me the USD has to strengthen against the peso. I hope they are right.
Milei Says Argentina Is ‘Very Close’ to Lifting FX Controls
(Bloomberg) -- Argentine President Javier Milei sees his government lifting currency controls very soon as his economic team works to clean up the central bank’s balance sheet. Most Read from BloombergSlovak Premier Fighting for Life After Assassination AttemptChina Considers Government Buying...
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