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Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?
- Thread starter James Bond
- Start date
Pink Panther
Well-known member
Yes it has really accelerated the past few days.
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
Blue strong today. 1,390!
www.dolarito.ar
Dólar hoy, cotización del dólar, precio del dólar, dólar blue, precio histórico del dólar, valor del UVA | Dolarito.ar
Seguí la cotización del dólar minuto a minuto, compara cotizaciones, visualiza los valores históricos, conocé el precio del dólar, evolución del valor UVA
Avocado
Well-known member
This might be good for all you expats that have your income or savings in USD but negative for all of us Argentines. This makes things more expensive for us because almost undoubtably there will be another official devaluation and will make things expensive for us.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
Just broke 1,400. 
Digital Nomad
Well-known member
Caputo says peso will be a strong currency but the blue market action says otherwise. Seems like no one wants to hold pesos vs. US dollars. Holding dollars over the long term seems to be the safe and smart bet here. Caputo had this meeting and then the exchange rate continues to blow up.
www.infobae.com
Caputo les aseguró a los banqueros que el peso no desaparecerá y que “será una moneda fuerte”
El ministro de Economía y Santiago Bausili encabezaron una reunión con entidades para explicar la nueva política monetaria y anticipó cómo espera el Gobierno que sea la próxima fase con competencia de monedas
www.infobae.com
Avocado
Well-known member
Milei just used the dollarization promise to get elected. Those that voted against him knew it would never happen. People see now it was all a lie. Milei go around the world to accept fake awards. He tell all EU why he should win the Nobel Prize. He will be lucky in the end if he finish his term.Caputo says peso will be a strong currency but the blue market action says otherwise. Seems like no one wants to hold pesos vs. US dollars. Holding dollars over the long term seems to be the safe and smart bet here. Caputo had this meeting and then the exchange rate continues to blow up.
Caputo les aseguró a los banqueros que el peso no desaparecerá y que “será una moneda fuerte”
El ministro de Economía y Santiago Bausili encabezaron una reunión con entidades para explicar la nueva política monetaria y anticipó cómo espera el Gobierno que sea la próxima fase con competencia de monedas
Despite achieving the approval of the Bases Law and a fiscal package in the Chamber of Deputies last week, which was seen as a political achievement for the government, the demand for the dollar remains high in the parallel market. How are they supposed to regulate this?
www.ambito.com
Dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotiza este lunes 1 de julio
Mirá a cuánto cotizan hoy el dólar blue, el dólar MEP y el CCL.
www.ambito.com
jem
Member
Wow, in some provinces, it's already selling for nearly $1,430... a historical record.
www.ambito.com
Dólar blue recalentado: en algunas provincias ya se vende a casi $1.430
El anuncio de la "segunda etapa" del plan económico no pareció satisfacer al mercado. El dólar paralelo pega un salto de $40. ¿Cuánto cuesta en cada provincia?
www.ambito.com
Avocado
Well-known member
They can't regulate it other than to try to sell US dollars with central reserve funds. That is what previous administrations did. Milei is figuring out that he probably isn't going to get that Nobel prize after all.Despite achieving the approval of the Bases Law and a fiscal package in the Chamber of Deputies last week, which was seen as a political achievement for the government, the demand for the dollar remains high in the parallel market. How are they supposed to regulate this?
Dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotiza este lunes 1 de julio
Mirá a cuánto cotizan hoy el dólar blue, el dólar MEP y el CCL.
Finance Prof
Well-known member
Today is the first time the markets can react to the announcement by the national government regarding the transfer of the debt from the Argentina Central Bank to the national Treasury. You can see the reaction to Caputo's meeting to define how this might work. It's confusing because there would be an insurance of a bill that will have a coupon with an interest rate that will be administered by the Argentina Central Bank but it must be paid by the National Treasury.Caputo says peso will be a strong currency but the blue market action says otherwise. Seems like no one wants to hold pesos vs. US dollars. Holding dollars over the long term seems to be the safe and smart bet here. Caputo had this meeting and then the exchange rate continues to blow up.
Caputo les aseguró a los banqueros que el peso no desaparecerá y que “será una moneda fuerte”
El ministro de Economía y Santiago Bausili encabezaron una reunión con entidades para explicar la nueva política monetaria y anticipó cómo espera el Gobierno que sea la próxima fase con competencia de monedas
This change exposes banks to a greater risk of default by the State.
My friend is in Tierra del Fuego and today he said it was 1427 to $1 USD. I heard in Cordoba it was 1420 today.
jmerl
New member
Despite the approval of the Bases Law and the fiscal package, the economic outlook remains unclear. The country risk has risen again, and the gap between the official dollar and the blue dollar continues to grow. Let's hope that in this phase 2, as Caputo says, they manage to stabilize the economy.
www.infobae.com
El riesgo país volvió a los 1.500 puntos y dólar libre superó los $1.400 luego de los anuncios del Gobierno
El plan de estabilización de Milei entró en su “fase 2″ con más incógnitas que certezas. Acciones y bonos se negociaron a la baja
www.infobae.com
earlyretirement
Moderator
The tough thing is Argentina is in a severe recession. It's really important that the Central Bank builds up US dollar reserves. Imports fell sharply in the first quarter of the year. It was great that President Milei passed the legislation but as I mentioned before, there is a lot of work to do. It's not going to be a cakewalk. Great things going on as well including Currency swap with China. However, still a lot of problems to address.
Argentina needs a lot of $$$$ and it was revealed recently that there is no agreement with the IMF yet. I posted since before the Presidential election that dollarization was NOT happening any time soon. That remains to be the case contrary to what Milei might say.
Don't forget the government drastically reduced interest rates from 133% to 40% from December when Milei got elected to May. This is equivalent to an effective monthly yield of only 3.3% which is far below the rate of inflation. So the government has set a policy of negative rates. Now that fixed-term deposits are unregulated, banks are paying around 3% per month, which cause many savers to leave their peso-denominated deposits and flee to the US dollar.
Caputo is saying that the era of negative rates is ending. In May effective rates were 3.3% compared to inflation of 4.2%. Inflation for July will be 5.5% or so. So they have to change this.
But the government must build up their US dollar reserves and on last friday alone the Central Bank sold $38 MILLION dollars. You have to see how effective the passage of the Omnibus will be but that will take time. NOTHING works quickly in Argentina.
Argentina needs a lot of $$$$ and it was revealed recently that there is no agreement with the IMF yet. I posted since before the Presidential election that dollarization was NOT happening any time soon. That remains to be the case contrary to what Milei might say.
Don't forget the government drastically reduced interest rates from 133% to 40% from December when Milei got elected to May. This is equivalent to an effective monthly yield of only 3.3% which is far below the rate of inflation. So the government has set a policy of negative rates. Now that fixed-term deposits are unregulated, banks are paying around 3% per month, which cause many savers to leave their peso-denominated deposits and flee to the US dollar.
Caputo is saying that the era of negative rates is ending. In May effective rates were 3.3% compared to inflation of 4.2%. Inflation for July will be 5.5% or so. So they have to change this.
But the government must build up their US dollar reserves and on last friday alone the Central Bank sold $38 MILLION dollars. You have to see how effective the passage of the Omnibus will be but that will take time. NOTHING works quickly in Argentina.
Betsy Ross
Well-known member
Also, for a while the peso was stable and that gave people some confidence. Some owners were even preferring to do rentals in pesos vs. dollars which is unheard of in Argentina. Over the long haul, dollars will always be safer than pesos and people are seeing that you can't bet against the US dollar in Argentina.
Now that it is at an all time high it causes more locals to talk about it and it kind of takes on a life of it's own where people do NOT want to hold pesos and only dollars.
I'm not a fan of the government intervening in the exchange rate but not sure what choice they have. There was a great thread today on the IMF and the love hate relationship. The IMF would be totally against dollarization and the IMF usually gets their way.
Argentina and the IMF: Can This Marriage Be Saved?
Argentina and the IMF: Can This Marriage Be Saved? Before agreeing on a new program, the 23rd in their convoluted history, the IMF and its main borrower should do some honest soul-searching...
www.expatsba.com
The Blue Dollar Keeps Rising: Today It Reached $1,420, Marking a Historic Increase.
www.ambito.com
Dólar blue hoy: a cuánto cotiza este martes 2 de julio
Mirá a cuánto cotizan hoy el dólar blue, el dólar MEP y el CCL.
www.ambito.com
According to this highly respected economist, who is one of the most listened to by Milei, he's saying that although it seems like the Central Bank (BCRA) is trying to maintain a stable exchange rate by selling reserves, there is actually no formal commitment to do so. Therefore, the 2% monthly adjustment they have been making could change at any time.
www.cronista.com
Por qué sube el dólar blue y qué puede pasar, según Juan Carlos de Pablo
El economista, uno de los más escuchados del mercado, advirtió que el Gobierno no hizo una "promesa formal" de mantener un tipo de cambio.
www.cronista.com
Well, you know, while some folks are freaking out about "devaluation" again, Manuel Adorni, he's just shrugging off the market tension and the rise in the black market dollar. He says this whole thing doesn't mess with the plan or the path that Milei's government is on.
www.infobae.com
El Gobierno minimizó la tensión en los mercados: “No damos un paso atrás, ni siquiera para tomar impulso”
El vocero presidencial, Manuel Adorni, se refirió a la suba en la cotización del dólar libre, y sostuvo que este proceso “no interfiere en el plan ni en el camino que estamos haciendo”
www.infobae.com
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