Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[noname]

MEP Dollar below $1,200 for the first time in four months.

 

[James Bond]

MEP Dollar below $1,200 for the first time in four months.

View attachment 7407

This just makes it more expensive for tourists to visit. I guess I moved out at a good time. I was reading some posts online and talking to some mates there now and all complaining how expensive it is compared to last year.

 

[Uncle Wong]

This just makes it more expensive for tourists to visit. I guess I moved out at a good time. I was reading some posts online and talking to some mates there now and all complaining how expensive it is compared to last year.

It's funny reading some posts by locals on X on some threads and they are cheering on it being expensive in USD for everyone. When foreigners post that doesn't make sense they post about not wanting people to take advantage of the low prices. Makes no sense at all. Tourism is important and brings in billions and billions of dollars into the country. Lots of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops depend on it.

If Argentina keeps getting very expensive in dollar terms there will be a big fall off on tourism. I still don't understand what the plan is for 2025. The IMF wants Argentina to build up reserves which they aren't really doing. They want Argentina to devalue its currency which Milei says he won't do. They want Argentina to get rid of the CEPO and let the currency float freely which doesn't sound like is in the cards for at least another year or more.



I saw this chart on X. It looks like $18 Billion in loans are due in 2025. I asked my local friends there including one accountant that I met during my last trip how this will get paid back if the IMF doesn't give new funds. He said no one knows and that Argentina is trying to get some cash in the Middle East. But if they can't and the IMF doesn't give more funds and they have to default what will that do to the exchange rate?

 

[Wally]

It's funny reading some posts by locals on X on some threads and they are cheering on it being expensive in USD for everyone. When foreigners post that doesn't make sense they post about not wanting people to take advantage of the low prices. Makes no sense at all. Tourism is important and brings in billions and billions of dollars into the country. Lots of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops depend on it.

If Argentina keeps getting very expensive in dollar terms there will be a big fall off on tourism. I still don't understand what the plan is for 2025. The IMF wants Argentina to build up reserves which they aren't really doing. They want Argentina to devalue its currency which Milei says he won't do. They want Argentina to get rid of the CEPO and let the currency float freely which doesn't sound like is in the cards for at least another year or more.

View attachment 7436

I saw this chart on X. It looks like $18 Billion in loans are due in 2025. I asked my local friends there including one accountant that I met during my last trip how this will get paid back if the IMF doesn't give new funds. He said no one knows and that Argentina is trying to get some cash in the Middle East. But if they can't and the IMF doesn't give more funds and they have to default what will that do to the exchange rate?

I have also read some posts about locals saying they want it to be as expensive as Switzerland. Makes no sense to me. Locals will never make the salaries of Switzerland. Don't feel bad @Uncle Wong. I know people in finance here all their lives and they admit they have absolutely no guess how things will turn out. Half of them think that Milei is making a huge mistake and half of them think he is a genius.

Half of them will be wrong soon enough. It's not just 2025 that we have to worry about. There is even more maturities due in 2026 and 2027. I hope it all turns out well but been here long enough to know that eventually things change.

 

[Larry]

It's funny reading some posts by locals on X on some threads and they are cheering on it being expensive in USD for everyone. When foreigners post that doesn't make sense they post about not wanting people to take advantage of the low prices. Makes no sense at all. Tourism is important and brings in billions and billions of dollars into the country. Lots of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops depend on it.

If Argentina keeps getting very expensive in dollar terms there will be a big fall off on tourism. I still don't understand what the plan is for 2025. The IMF wants Argentina to build up reserves which they aren't really doing. They want Argentina to devalue its currency which Milei says he won't do. They want Argentina to get rid of the CEPO and let the currency float freely which doesn't sound like is in the cards for at least another year or more.

View attachment 7436

I saw this chart on X. It looks like $18 Billion in loans are due in 2025. I asked my local friends there including one accountant that I met during my last trip how this will get paid back if the IMF doesn't give new funds. He said no one knows and that Argentina is trying to get some cash in the Middle East. But if they can't and the IMF doesn't give more funds and they have to default what will that do to the exchange rate?

The funny thing is that Caputo pretends like he doesn't need more $$ from IMF. He is desperate but the IMF already gave the conditions which Argentina does not want to follow.

Default is looking likely without more money from IMF or some other country.

Caputo aseguró que por ahora no negocia un nuevo acuerdo con el FMI y descartó tomar deuda | TN

El titular del Ministerio de Economía consideró que ya se evitó una crisis económica y afirmó que el único objetivo de tomar nueva deuda sería para reforzar las arcas del Banco Central.

tn.com.ar

 

[Melibaires]

If the Central Bank keeps buying dollars and shows signs that the economy is stabilizing, it’s possible that demand for dollars in the parallel market could drop, which might cause the blue dollar to go down or at least not rise as much. However, if people continue to distrust the economy and turn to the informal market for dollars, all this might not have much effect, and the blue dollar could keep going up. Everything is always uncertain in this country.

El Banco Central compró USD 64 millones en el mercado y pasó a saldo positivo en septiembre

La autoridad monetaria absorbió a lo largo de la semana USD 214 millones con su intervención cambiaria. Las reservas crecieron en USD 134 millones a USD 27.263 millones

www.infobae.com

 

[Spend Thrift]

If the Central Bank keeps buying dollars and shows signs that the economy is stabilizing, it’s possible that demand for dollars in the parallel market could drop, which might cause the blue dollar to go down or at least not rise as much. However, if people continue to distrust the economy and turn to the informal market for dollars, all this might not have much effect, and the blue dollar could keep going up. Everything is always uncertain in this country.

El Banco Central compró USD 64 millones en el mercado y pasó a saldo positivo en septiembre

La autoridad monetaria absorbió a lo largo de la semana USD 214 millones con su intervención cambiaria. Las reservas crecieron en USD 134 millones a USD 27.263 millones

www.infobae.com

What goes up must come down. The peso is overvalued. Let's see the peso float freely without any intervention and if that ever happens it will sink like a rock.

 

[Scottishgaucho]

Well I know sod all about it so you can take what I say with a pinch of salt. Although I have a dollar income I'm not getting that fussed about the falling Blue rate. My wife has a tidy peso income so we won't go without. If it means your average Argentine will eventually end up being in a better financial situation that's all that matters surely?
I'm afraid to say it but I have no sympathy for those who came here to take advantage of the Blue dollar rate.

 

[Digital Nomad]

Well I know sod all about it so you can take what I say with a pinch of salt. Although I have a dollar income I'm not getting that fussed about the falling Blue rate. My wife has a tidy peso income so we won't go without. If it means your average Argentine will eventually end up being in a better financial situation that's all that matters surely?
I'm afraid to say it but I have no sympathy for those who came here to take advantage of the Blue dollar rate.

That is the same attitude my girlfriend's family has. Their income is both in dollars and pesos. But their savings are all in dollars but they still would rather have a better local economy with it being safe. Their biggest fear is crime goes up and it doesn't become a safe place because no amount of savings will matter if you can't go out and enjoy life.

LOTS of expats are here taking advantage of the blue dollar but I have been told those type have to end up leaving. I have met a lot of expats at bars and hear them complaining. Most of these people will end up leaving.