Banking What is going on with the Blue dollar? Why is it going down?

[noname]

MEP Dollar below $1,200 for the first time in four months.

 

[James Bond]

MEP Dollar below $1,200 for the first time in four months.

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This just makes it more expensive for tourists to visit. I guess I moved out at a good time. I was reading some posts online and talking to some mates there now and all complaining how expensive it is compared to last year.

 

[Uncle Wong]

This just makes it more expensive for tourists to visit. I guess I moved out at a good time. I was reading some posts online and talking to some mates there now and all complaining how expensive it is compared to last year.

It's funny reading some posts by locals on X on some threads and they are cheering on it being expensive in USD for everyone. When foreigners post that doesn't make sense they post about not wanting people to take advantage of the low prices. Makes no sense at all. Tourism is important and brings in billions and billions of dollars into the country. Lots of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops depend on it.

If Argentina keeps getting very expensive in dollar terms there will be a big fall off on tourism. I still don't understand what the plan is for 2025. The IMF wants Argentina to build up reserves which they aren't really doing. They want Argentina to devalue its currency which Milei says he won't do. They want Argentina to get rid of the CEPO and let the currency float freely which doesn't sound like is in the cards for at least another year or more.



I saw this chart on X. It looks like $18 Billion in loans are due in 2025. I asked my local friends there including one accountant that I met during my last trip how this will get paid back if the IMF doesn't give new funds. He said no one knows and that Argentina is trying to get some cash in the Middle East. But if they can't and the IMF doesn't give more funds and they have to default what will that do to the exchange rate?

 

[Wally]

It's funny reading some posts by locals on X on some threads and they are cheering on it being expensive in USD for everyone. When foreigners post that doesn't make sense they post about not wanting people to take advantage of the low prices. Makes no sense at all. Tourism is important and brings in billions and billions of dollars into the country. Lots of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops depend on it.

If Argentina keeps getting very expensive in dollar terms there will be a big fall off on tourism. I still don't understand what the plan is for 2025. The IMF wants Argentina to build up reserves which they aren't really doing. They want Argentina to devalue its currency which Milei says he won't do. They want Argentina to get rid of the CEPO and let the currency float freely which doesn't sound like is in the cards for at least another year or more.

View attachment 7436

I saw this chart on X. It looks like $18 Billion in loans are due in 2025. I asked my local friends there including one accountant that I met during my last trip how this will get paid back if the IMF doesn't give new funds. He said no one knows and that Argentina is trying to get some cash in the Middle East. But if they can't and the IMF doesn't give more funds and they have to default what will that do to the exchange rate?

I have also read some posts about locals saying they want it to be as expensive as Switzerland. Makes no sense to me. Locals will never make the salaries of Switzerland. Don't feel bad @Uncle Wong. I know people in finance here all their lives and they admit they have absolutely no guess how things will turn out. Half of them think that Milei is making a huge mistake and half of them think he is a genius.

Half of them will be wrong soon enough. It's not just 2025 that we have to worry about. There is even more maturities due in 2026 and 2027. I hope it all turns out well but been here long enough to know that eventually things change.

 

[Larry]

It's funny reading some posts by locals on X on some threads and they are cheering on it being expensive in USD for everyone. When foreigners post that doesn't make sense they post about not wanting people to take advantage of the low prices. Makes no sense at all. Tourism is important and brings in billions and billions of dollars into the country. Lots of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops depend on it.

If Argentina keeps getting very expensive in dollar terms there will be a big fall off on tourism. I still don't understand what the plan is for 2025. The IMF wants Argentina to build up reserves which they aren't really doing. They want Argentina to devalue its currency which Milei says he won't do. They want Argentina to get rid of the CEPO and let the currency float freely which doesn't sound like is in the cards for at least another year or more.

View attachment 7436

I saw this chart on X. It looks like $18 Billion in loans are due in 2025. I asked my local friends there including one accountant that I met during my last trip how this will get paid back if the IMF doesn't give new funds. He said no one knows and that Argentina is trying to get some cash in the Middle East. But if they can't and the IMF doesn't give more funds and they have to default what will that do to the exchange rate?

The funny thing is that Caputo pretends like he doesn't need more $$ from IMF. He is desperate but the IMF already gave the conditions which Argentina does not want to follow.

Default is looking likely without more money from IMF or some other country.

Caputo aseguró que por ahora no negocia un nuevo acuerdo con el FMI y descartó tomar deuda | TN

El titular del Ministerio de Economía consideró que ya se evitó una crisis económica y afirmó que el único objetivo de tomar nueva deuda sería para reforzar las arcas del Banco Central.

tn.com.ar

 

[Melibaires]

If the Central Bank keeps buying dollars and shows signs that the economy is stabilizing, it’s possible that demand for dollars in the parallel market could drop, which might cause the blue dollar to go down or at least not rise as much. However, if people continue to distrust the economy and turn to the informal market for dollars, all this might not have much effect, and the blue dollar could keep going up. Everything is always uncertain in this country.

El Banco Central compró USD 64 millones en el mercado y pasó a saldo positivo en septiembre

La autoridad monetaria absorbió a lo largo de la semana USD 214 millones con su intervención cambiaria. Las reservas crecieron en USD 134 millones a USD 27.263 millones

www.infobae.com

 

[Spend Thrift]

If the Central Bank keeps buying dollars and shows signs that the economy is stabilizing, it’s possible that demand for dollars in the parallel market could drop, which might cause the blue dollar to go down or at least not rise as much. However, if people continue to distrust the economy and turn to the informal market for dollars, all this might not have much effect, and the blue dollar could keep going up. Everything is always uncertain in this country.

El Banco Central compró USD 64 millones en el mercado y pasó a saldo positivo en septiembre

La autoridad monetaria absorbió a lo largo de la semana USD 214 millones con su intervención cambiaria. Las reservas crecieron en USD 134 millones a USD 27.263 millones

www.infobae.com

What goes up must come down. The peso is overvalued. Let's see the peso float freely without any intervention and if that ever happens it will sink like a rock.

 

[Scottishgaucho]

Well I know sod all about it so you can take what I say with a pinch of salt. Although I have a dollar income I'm not getting that fussed about the falling Blue rate. My wife has a tidy peso income so we won't go without. If it means your average Argentine will eventually end up being in a better financial situation that's all that matters surely?
I'm afraid to say it but I have no sympathy for those who came here to take advantage of the Blue dollar rate.

 

[Digital Nomad]

Well I know sod all about it so you can take what I say with a pinch of salt. Although I have a dollar income I'm not getting that fussed about the falling Blue rate. My wife has a tidy peso income so we won't go without. If it means your average Argentine will eventually end up being in a better financial situation that's all that matters surely?
I'm afraid to say it but I have no sympathy for those who came here to take advantage of the Blue dollar rate.

That is the same attitude my girlfriend's family has. Their income is both in dollars and pesos. But their savings are all in dollars but they still would rather have a better local economy with it being safe. Their biggest fear is crime goes up and it doesn't become a safe place because no amount of savings will matter if you can't go out and enjoy life.

LOTS of expats are here taking advantage of the blue dollar but I have been told those type have to end up leaving. I have met a lot of expats at bars and hear them complaining. Most of these people will end up leaving.

 

[Larry]

That is a good read but getting rid of the Cepo is easier said than done. @Digital Nomad things here are very complicated if you haven't figured it out.

Milei's promise to end the CEPO was all a lie. Today on Wall Street in the USA, Milei admitted that he will end currency restrictions when the inflation rate is 0%. Argentina is not going to hit 0%!

🤡🤡🤡

 

[Finance Prof]

Not getting rid of the CEPO is a mistake. I also heard him saying that the CEPO wouldn't end until 0% which is not going to happen. The writing was on the wall as they kept extending out when they were planning on getting rid of the CEPO. Was supposed to be end of 2024, then beginning of 2025 to end of 2025 now when Argentina has 0% inflation?

 

[Blockchain]

Not getting rid of the CEPO is a mistake. I also heard him saying that the CEPO wouldn't end until 0% which is not going to happen. The writing was on the wall as they kept extending out when they were planning on getting rid of the CEPO. Was supposed to be end of 2024, then beginning of 2025 to end of 2025 now when Argentina has 0% inflation?

Realistically how would this happen? Argentina has no reserves, no access to foreign credit markets and HUGE multi-billion dollar debts that are due in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

 

[legend]

Milei has repeatedly expressed his intention to quickly and definitively remove currency controls if he won the presidency. According to his proposals, one of his top priorities was to liberalize the exchange market, allowing for the free buying and selling of foreign currency without restrictions. However, I think he rushed in saying it would be one of the first things he'd do since everything depends on the economic reality and how things fluctuate. So, we'll need to be patient and wait.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Milei has repeatedly expressed his intention to quickly and definitively remove currency controls if he won the presidency. According to his proposals, one of his top priorities was to liberalize the exchange market, allowing for the free buying and selling of foreign currency without restrictions. However, I think he rushed in saying it would be one of the first things he'd do since everything depends on the economic reality and how things fluctuate. So, we'll need to be patient and wait.

Clearly this isn't happening any time soon. He admitted it today in NYC. It sounds like currency restrictions isn't happening at all during his first term in office.

 

[RN in BA]

Sounds like they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

 

[Digital Nomad]

Not getting rid of the CEPO is a mistake. I also heard him saying that the CEPO wouldn't end until 0% which is not going to happen. The writing was on the wall as they kept extending out when they were planning on getting rid of the CEPO. Was supposed to be end of 2024, then beginning of 2025 to end of 2025 now when Argentina has 0% inflation?

I think people are understanding it wrong. I read a lot of posts on X also repeating the 0% but here is the full speech. My Spanish isn't that great but it sounds like he is saying once the monthly inflation is 2.5%. Starts at 33:40.

 

[Finance Prof]

I think people are understanding it wrong. I read a lot of posts on X also repeating the 0% but here is the full speech. My Spanish isn't that great but it sounds like he is saying once the monthly inflation is 2.5%. Starts at 33:40.

Yes your interpretation is correct. They didn't release the entire video or transcript earlier but just watched the video and the reports before of not ending CEPO until 0% inflation is not correct. Still I am anxious to see when it will finally end.

 

[Colin]

Hopefully they can get rid of currency controls but it's understandable why they need to wait. Sounds like ending currency controls is one of the last big steps. I read about people saying that Milei is just another Macri but Macri didn't have the intelligence to do much of what Milei's administration is doing.

Not saying it will work quickly but you can't compare the two.

 

[Uncle Wong]

Insane insane what coffee is going for now in most nicer cafes. Yesterday I paid almost 7500 for a capachino. Prices are very dear. More expensive than many places in America and definitely much more expensive than Spain and Italy where I can get a great coffee for 2 euros.

I was amazed at just how expensive coffee is in BA in Palermo. Not sure if the entire city is like that. It looks like coffee prices hit a new high so prices probably will go up.

 

[Betsy Ross]

Unfortunately there are very high taxes on importing coffee into Argentina. Also locals price gouge at cafes. Especially in Palermo near touristy areas.